Key points
- After the 90-day pause, reciprocal tariffs are still expected to go into effect, and a 10% flat tariff on imported goods is already in place.
- Experts say that the cost of tariffs will be passed on to consumers, who will pay more for healthy staples at the grocery store.
- Domestically produced foods are also likely to become more expensive, as American producers face labor shortages due to Trump’s immigration policies.
One day it’s on, the next day it’s off. We can never tell what’s next in the saga of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. For now, Trump’s reciprocal tariffs have been paused for 90 days, which means he does (at least for now) eventually plan to move forward with them, and his 10% flat tariff for imports from all countries remains in place.
Ten percent might sound small, but that flat tariff is already looking like it will raise the cost of many goods. And when reciprocal tariffs do go into effect, they will without question change the price of staple commodities in the United States, including all the healthy foods the “Make America Healthy Again” movement is promoting.
Here’s how Trump’s tariffs could affect your efforts to eat healthier meals.
Who will bear the cost of tariffs?
As Food & Wine has reported, U.S. consumers should be aware that the burden of these tariffs will most likely fall on Americans — not on the countries Trump is targeting on or the companies who have to pay the tariffs. Instead, companies will likely pass this new cost on to you.
“While importers could absorb part of the tariff, historical evidence suggests most of the tariff burden will be passed on to consumers. Prices are likely to increase close to the tariff rate, meaning a 25% tariff on food imports from Mexico and Canada will likely increase prices for imported goods by a similar margin,” Dr. Shawn DuBravac, a PhD-trained economist and founder of the Avrio Institute, a strategic growth consulting and trendcasting firm, previously shared with Food & Wine. “This price adjustment would likely happen in a single step rather than gradually over time, though some lag may occur as existing contracts and inventories deplete.”
Which items are affected by tariffs?
Because of the 10% blanket tariff, essentially everything that is imported will be affected, save for a few special exemptions on tech goods like computer chips. But even these exceptions, Trump says, are temporary.
That 10% tax also applies to the foods the U.S. imports from all over the world. It should be noted that the U.S. imports more agricultural products than it exports, so the already staggeringly high price of groceries will likely continue to rise.
How will tariffs affect your ability to make healthy meals?
“Even with just the 10% baseline tariff, grocery prices will rise for a number of healthy foods, including olive oil and balsamic vinegar from Italy, bananas and blueberries from Central and South America, and everything from rice and nuts to seafood and spices from Asia,” Dr. Monica Gorman — a previous special assistant to former President Biden for manufacturing and industrial policy and deputy assistant secretary of commerce for manufacturing, who is now a managing director at Crowell Global Advisors — shares with Food & Wine. “If the higher reciprocal tariffs go into effect in 90 days, the costs to American shoppers will rise precipitously.”
As Gorman notes, the foods that are most likely to see price increases include coffee, which is primarily imported into the U.S. from Latin America and Asia, along with seasonal fruits from Latin America, seafood, cooking oils, nuts from Vietnam and China, and an array of spices, including pepper and cinnamon from Asia and vanilla from Madagascar.
Dr. Mohammad Elahee, a professor of International Business at Quinnipiac University, adds to this list, noting that “milled grain and edible oil, sugar and other sweeteners, vegetables such as avocado, tomato, etc., alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, preserved food and vegetables, meat, seafood, bakery products, dairy products, grains (such as fine rice), and oil seeds” will all likely see price hikes.
“While tariffs on some items could be as high as 54% (like those coming from China), some other items would be subject to lower tariffs of 20% (like wine and olive oil from Spain or Italy) or 10% tariffs (like chocolate and whiskey from the United Kingdom, coffee from Latin America, and beef from Australia), unless new tariffs are imposed on those countries,” Elahee details, echoing the uncertainty around the exact numbers Trump will decide on for each country.
Elahee makes one more critical point: It’s not just the cost of imported goods that will increase. Domestically produced foods will likely also become more expensive due to Trump’s tariff and immigration policies.
“The price of domestically produced food items will also go up as U.S. agricultural farms suffer from labor shortages,” Elahee says. “A large proportion of U.S. agricultural workers are undocumented immigrants. The deportation of undocumented immigrants is causing a further shortage of agricultural labor, thereby pushing the wages of existing farm workers. Such higher wages will translate into higher prices for agricultural produce and food items that are grown or made in the U.S.”
Can we avoid these price increases?
That decision appears to be largely up to Trump.
“As there are some indications, albeit weak, that the Trump Administration is open to negotiations over tariffs, it is possible that the reciprocal tariffs on certain countries may be revised down a little bit, resulting in some relief for consumers,” Elahee explains.
But the professor emphasizes that, “Regardless of the outcome of any negotiations to lower tariffs, it is clear that the centerpiece of U.S. international trade is going to be tariffs. Hence, the price of all imported food items will experience a dramatic rise not seen in many decades.”
Is there any way for consumers to save on food?
There are a variety of ways to try and save on groceries, and not every strategy will work for every person or household. If you have plenty of time and access, then shopping from local producers and for in-season products might actually save you money.
For others, buying products in bulk at stores like Costco, planning meals for a whole week to limit waste, and searching for coupons might be most effective.
As Gorman notes, “People looking to save money should consider stocking up now on shelf-stable spices” and other non-perishable goods before they jump in price so you can continue to eat the foods that make you feel good for a bit longer.
