Key events
Germany’s car industry lobby group has expressed relief that the EU and US could reach a deal – but they are hardly overjoyed.
Hildegard Müller, president of the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA), said it was “fundamentally positive” that the two sides had prevented further escalation of the dispute started by Donald Trump. However, she added:
It is also clear that the US tariff of 15% on automotive products will cost German automotive companies billions annually and place a burden on them in the midst of their transformation.
The hit to Germany’s carmakers is expected to come through lost sales if they pass the tariffs on to American buyers, or through a hit to their margins if they absorb the cost themselves.
Either way though, the tariffs will function effectively as a tax on US consumers, who must either pay a higher price, or else see protected US manufacturers able to raise prices themselves.
European carmakers’ share price rise on US-EU trade deal
The relief for European carmakers is clear.
The 15% deal averted a 30% tariff on 1 August. Mercedes-Benz’s share price rose 1.8% to its highest since late March, and Porsche gained 1.7%.
Volkswagen gained 0.8%, although its gained were limited by a cut in guidance from its premium brand, Audi, which cut its sales forecasts by a further €2.5bn because of the tariffs. Reuters reported:
Audi now expects revenue between €65bn and €70bn, down from a previous range of €67.5bn to €72.5bn, and an operating margin between 5 and 7%, down from a previous range of 7 to 9%.
Stellantis, a group forged from a mixture of brands spanning from Detroit, to Italy and France, gained 1.2%.
Investors might be cheered, but the reaction this morning from European leaders to the EU’s trade deal with the US is decidedly mixed.
Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, has long been one of the most divisive voices within the EU, and he wasted no time in criticising European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for what he described as a worse deal than the UK managed to secure. According to Reuters, Orbán told a podcast:
This is not an agreement … Donald Trump ate Von der Leyen for breakfast, this is what happened and we suspected this would happen as the US President is a heavyweight when it comes to negotiations while Madame President is featherweight.
Belgium’s prime minister, Bart de Wever, struck a different tone – firmly placing the blame for tariffs on Donald Trump. He posted on the social network X:
This is a moment of relief but not of celebration.
I sincerely hope the United States will, in due course, turn away again from the delusion of protectionism and once again embrace the value of free trade – a cornerstone of shared prosperity. In the meantime, Europe must continue to deepen its internal market, cut unnecessary regulation, and forge new partnerships to diversify our global trade network. May Europe become the beacon of open, fair, and reliable trade the world so urgently needs.
Global stock markets rise after trade deal averts spiralling EU-US tariffs
Good morning, and welcome to our live coverage of business, economics and financial markets.
Global stock markets have rallied after the US and EU agreed a trade deal, removing a major source of uncertainty for companies around the world even as it promised a permanent cost to trans-Atlantic goods trade.
European stock markets surged on the opening bell on Monday, a day after US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, shook hands on a deal in Turnberry, Scotland, on Sunday. Germany’s Dax rose 0.8% in early trading, France’s Cac 40 gained 1%, while Spain’s Ibex gained 0.8%. The FTSE 100 in London gained 0.5%.
Asian stock markets also mostly rallied. Australia’s ASX200 rose by 0.4%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.4%, Korea’s Kospi index gained 0.6%, while Shanghai’s CSI300 gained 0.1%. However, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell by 1% amid doubts over the details of its own trade deal with the US.
The US-EU deal will put a 15% US tariff on most imports from the EU, including cars and computer chips. Steel and aluminium still face 50% tariffs – but only above certain quotas.
There are zero tariffs on aerospace parts, some chemicals and raw materials. The EU will also agree to buy $750bn in US energy, and more military equipment – both of which fit with moves since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
There is good news and bad news in the deal, said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, an investment bank:
The crippling uncertainty seems to be largely over. The trade deal which the US and the EU struck in Scotland on Sunday with a 15% tariff on most US goods imports from the EU is bearable for the EU, much more so than the 30% tariff would have been which US president Donald Trump had threatened before.
However, the outcome remains much worse than the situation before Trump started his new round of trade wars early this year. The extra US tariffs will hurt both the US and the EU. […] The trade tensions with the US will subtract a cumulative 0.3 percentage points from European and 0.5 percentage points from German growth in 2025 and 2026 taken together.
The deal is asymmetric. The US gets away with a substantial increase in its tariffs on imports from the EU and has secured further EU concessions to boot.
The agenda
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11am BST: UK Confederation of British Industry distributive trades (retail) survey (July; previous: -46%; consensus: -26%)
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12:30pm BST: Donald Trump press conference in Scotland
