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Major League Baseball teams have long leaned on hiring Ivy
League graduates to fill executive positions that figure out
difficult scenarios.
With the
Ivy League joining the FCS playoffs for the first time this
season, maybe the Moneyball guys can come over in their offseason
to help decipher all the analytics, probabilities and wackiness
surrounding FCS postseason contenders.
No wait, they’ll probably find a way to get four or five Ivy
teams into the
24-team playoff field come Selection Sunday, Nov. 23. That will
only make it harder on everyone else.
But take a deep breath and wipe the sweat off your brow, some
postseason bids figure to be earned and other bubbles burst during
Week 12 of a season that’s already had a wild month of November
football.
Let’s span FCS nation prior to the penultimate schedule of
games.
FCS Football Week 12 Preview &
Predictions
FCS Game of the
Week
No. 9 UC Davis (7-2, 5-1) at No. 3 Montana State (8-2,
6-0)
Kickoff: 10:15 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN2) at
Bobcat Stadium in Bozeman, Montana
Series: Montana State leads 8-1 (last meeting:
Montana State won 30-28 at UC Davis on Nov. 16, 2024)
Notable: UC Davis’ win in the series occurred
in the first matchup in 2006. Montana State’s plus-229 point
differential in conference games – 294 points scored against 65
allowed – is by far the largest in the FCS. The Bobcats, who share
first place with No. 2 Montana and have won 40 of their last 42
home games, rank fifth in the FCS with 232.8 rushing yards per
game, but it jumps to 253.6 on average against FCS opponents, with
running backs Julius Davis (709 yards, six TDs) and Adam Jones
(593, nine) leading the way this season. Quarterback Justin Lambson
has 26 combined TD passes and runs against just three turnovers.
The ‘Cats have allowed 21 sacks, however, and have to deal with UC
Davis defensive end Jacob Psyk, the Harvard transfer who leads the
Big Sky in tackles for loss (13.5) and sacks (7.5). The Aggies, who
are third in the conference standings with the loss against Idaho
State, have committed six turnovers in their last three games after
having just five in their first six games. Caden Pinnick is second
among FCS freshman QBs in passing yards (1,987), TD passes (20) and
passing efficiency (176.5). Wide receiver Samuel Gbatu Jr. has been
above 100 receiving yards in four straight and five of the team’s
six Big Sky games.
The Pick: Montana State
Second-and-10
1. In a
Top 25 matchup, No. 15 Stephen F. Austin (8-2, 6-0) will claim
the Southland’s automatic bid to the FCS playoffs if they extend
their first eight-game winning streak since 1989 against No. 19
Lamar (8-2, 5-1). It’s easy to think offense with SFA’s Big 3 of QB
Sam Vidlak, RB Jerrell Wimbley and WR Kylon Harris, but the
Lumberjacks rank No. 2 nationally in average yards (247.9) and
rushing yards (65.5) allowed per game, and are just one TFL behind
Tennessee Tech for the FCS high with 89. Defensive end Ky Thomas
and linebacker Jaydon Southard lead with 10.0 and 9.5,
respectively.
2. Central Connecticut State (7-3, 5-0) will clinch the NEC
automatic bid to the FCS playoffs with a win at Duquesne (3-2), but
even with a loss, coach Adam Lechtenberg’s squad would still be in
the driver’s seat heading into its Nov. 22 game. The Blue Devils
forced eight turnovers in last year’s 21-14 win over Duquesne,
including cornerback Christopher Jean with three interceptions.
He’ll surely be assigned to Dukes WR Joey Isbella, who had a TD
catch against 15 straight non-FBS opponents before going without
one against LIU last Saturday.
3. Five Top 10 teams remain unbeaten going into their final two
regular-season games: No. 1 North Dakota State (10-0), No. 2
Montana (10-0), No. 4 Lehigh (10-0), No. 5 Tennessee Tech (10-0;
playing FBS Kentucky this week) and No. 7 Harvard (8-0). The last
time there were two unbeatens at the end of the regular season was
2022 (Holy Cross and Sacramento State). The last time there were
three unbeatens at the end of the regular season was 2007 (McNeese,
Montana and Northern Iowa).
4. The Missouri Valley Football Conference could possibly match
the single-season record with six playoff bids, something only it
and CAA Football have accomplished previously. The Valley has seven
nationally ranked candidates, but two are slumping and finishing
against teams ranked above them. Southern Illinois (6-4) is in the
worse spot with a sub-FCS win that doesn’t count on its resume, and
surely need to beat both No. 17 South Dakota and No. 14 Illinois
State. Meanwhile, No. 16 South Dakota State (7-3) hosts Illinois
State before traveling to No. 13 North Dakota, likely needing just
one win to claim an at-large bid.
5. Among 13 FCS conferences, the Pioneer Football League has the
most teams within one game of first place with five. Drake (6-3,
5-1) held on to the top spot despite a loss to St. Thomas last week
because Presbyterian
was stunned by Davidson. Drake has won its last 13 road league
matchups as it heads to Dayton, which joins Presbyterian and San
Diego at 4-2 each, while St. Thomas is 5-2. The week’s other big
game is Presbyterian at St. Thomas – two teams hoping to claim an
FCS playoff bid for the first time.
6. Sacred Heart is 7-3 and guaranteed of a winning season under
veteran coach Mark Nofri as the Pioneers head toward joining the
CAA next year. It includes a victory over Delaware State and
credible losses to Lehigh, Montana and Central Connecticut State.
Mitchell Summers leads FCS freshmen in rushing yards (895) and is
tied for the high in TDs (10) heading into season-ending matchups
against Merrimack, which the Pioneers are leaving behind in FCS
independence, and Villanova.
7. Better later than never. The FCS leader in passing yards,
Mercer’s Braden Atkinson (2,917), didn’t debut until what was
supposed to the Bears’ third game (the Week 0 game against UC Davis
was canceled in the fourth quarter by inclement weather) and No. 3
Taron Dickens (2,752) missed Western Carolina’s first three games.
South Dakota’s L.J. Phillips Jr. is No. 3 in rushing yards (1,464)
despite not getting his first start until the Coyotes’ third game
(he only had 73 yards through two games). Penn’s Jared Richardson
leads the FCS in receptions per game (7.3) and receiving yards per
game (107.4) and is tied for seventh in receiving yards (859)
despite the Ivy League’s later start to competition.
8. Whoever references Maine as Quarterback U would be a first.
But he or she might be correct. Prior to Mercer transfer Carter
Peevy (33 TD passes to 10 interceptions) taking over the last two
seasons, the Black Bears had four seasons with either Derek
Robertson, who at Monmouth the last two seasons has the most
passing yards and TD passes in the FCS, and Joe Fagnano, who at
UConn this season has thrown 25 TDs passes without an interception,
and that breakdown is 45 to 4 over the last two seasons. Maine
(6-4, 5-1), which is on a six-game winning streak, welcomes in CAA
leader Rhode Island (8-2, 6-0) this week.
9. The SWAC seeks to move past the brawl, fine and suspensions
involving Bethune-Cookman and Grambling State with important games.
Prairie View A&M (7-3, 5-1) would clinch the West Division
title and a spot in the conference championship game with a likely
win over visiting Arkansas-Pine Bluff. The Panthers are
surrendering just 284.0 yards and 17.4 points per game – not just
conference lows but their best averages since 2008 and 2009,
respectively. The only way the East Division berth would be secured
this week is if reigning conference champ Jackson State (7-2, 5-1)
beats Bethune-Cookman and Alabama State (7-2, 5-1) suffers an
unlikely loss to Mississippi Valley State in Mobile.
10. The week’s first game is Friday night with North Carolina
Central (7-3, 2-1) hosting South Carolina State (7-3, 3-0), which
was originally expected to be the MEAC’s biggest game, until the
Eagles lost to surprising Delaware State (7-3, 3-0) to open the
conference schedule. The Eagles still have a path to the MEAC’s
Celebration Bowl bid. They need to beat SCSU and hope SCSU can
rebound to win at Delaware State. The tiebreakers for a three-way
tie at 4-1 would lead to favoring NCCU due to its four
nonconference wins over Division I opponents.
FCS Football Top 25 Schedule –
Week 12
All times ET and on Saturday unless noted; Predicted
winner in boldface
Last week’s record: 13-6 (.682); Season record: 178-45
(.798)
No. 1 North Dakota State (10-0, 7-0 MVFC):
Northern Iowa (3-7, 1-5), 3:30 p.m. (ABC North Dakota/ESPN+)
No. 2 Montana (10-0, 6-0 Big Sky): at Portland
State (1-9, 1-5), 5 p.m. (Scripps/EXPN+)
No. 3 Montana State (8-2, 6-0 Big Sky): No. 9
UC Davis (7-2, 5-1), 10:15 p.m. (ESPN2)
No. 4 Lehigh (10-0, 5-0 Patriot): at Colgate
(4-6, 2-3), 1 p.m. (ESPN+)
No. 5 Tennessee Tech (10-0, 7-0 OVC-Big South): at
Kentucky (4-5), 1:30 p.m. (SECN+/ESPN+)
No. 6 Tarleton State (9-1, 5-1 UAC): North
Alabama (2-8, 1-5), 7 p.m. (ESPN+)
No. 7 Harvard (8-0, 5-0 Ivy): Penn (5-3, 3-2),
noon (ESPN+)
No. 8 Mercer (8-1, 7-0 SoCon): Chattanooga
(5-5, 4-2), 3 p.m. (ESPN+)
No. 9 UC Davis (7-2, 5-1 Big Sky): at No. 3 Montana
State (8-2, 6-0), 10:15 p.m. (ESPN2)
No. 10 Villanova (7-2, 6-1 CAA): Stony Brook
(5-5, 3-3), 1 p.m. (FloCollege)
No. 11 Rhode Island (8-2, 6-0 CAA): at Maine
(6-4, 5-1), 1 p.m. (ABC7/FloCollege)
No. 12 Monmouth (8-2, 5-1 CAA): at North
Carolina A&T (2-8, 2-4), noon (FloCollege)
No. 13 North Dakota (6-4, 4-2 MVFC): at Murray
State (0-10, 0-6), noon (ESPN+)
No. 14 Illinois State (7-3, 4-2 MVFC): at No. 16 South
Dakota State (7-3, 3-3), 3 p.m. (ESPN+)
No. 15 Stephen F. Austin (8-2, 6-0 Southland):
No. 19 Lamar (8-2, 5-1), 5 p.m. (ESPN+)
No. 16 South Dakota State (7-3, 3-3 MVFC): No.
14Illinois State (7-3, 4-2), 3 p.m. (ESPN+)
No. 17 South Dakota (7-4, 5-2 MVFC): at No. 21
Southern Illinois (6-4, 3-3), 1 p.m. (ESPN+)
No. 18 Abilene Christian (6-4, 5-1 UAC): at
Eastern Kentucky (4-6, 2-4), 3 p.m. (ESPN+)
No. 19 Lamar (8-2, 5-1 Southland): at No. 15 Stephen F.
Austin (8-2, 6-0), 5 p.m. (ESPN+)
No. 20 Youngstown State (6-4, 3-3 MVFC):
Indiana State (3-7, 1-5), noon (ESPN+)
No. 21 Southern Illinois (6-4, 3-3 MVFC): No. 17 South
Dakota (7-4, 5-2), 1 p.m. (ESPN+)
No. 22 Jackson State (7-2, 5-1 SWAC):
Bethune-Cookman (5-5, 4-2), 1 p.m. (TheGrio)
No. 23 Southeastern Louisiana (7-3, 5-1
Southland): at UIW (4-6, 2-4), 3 p.m. (ESPN+)
No. 24 Northern Arizona (6-4, 3-3 Big Sky): Cal
Poly (3-7, 1-5), 4 p.m. (ESPN+)
No. 25 Western Carolina (6-4, 5-1 SoCon): ETSU (5-5,
3-3), noon (Nexstar/ESPN+)
Top photo, from left,
via Montana State, CCSU, SFA and UC Davis Athletics.
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