EUR/USD Forex Signal 23/02: US Tariff Confusion (Chart) – Charm

Created on February 23, 2026

My previous EUR/USD signal last Thursday produced a nicely profitable short trade from the bearish rejection of $1.1805 by an hourly pin bar.

Risk 0.75%.
Trades may be entered prior to 5pm London time today.

Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.1840, $1.1856, or $1.1887.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.1805, $1.1774, or $1.1760.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

In my previous EUR/USD analysis last Thursday, I thought that if the EUR/USD currency pair had a bearish outlook and I was looking for a short trade from a bearish reversal at either of the two nearest resistance levels. This was a good call, but I must admit I did not have much confidence in the trade, although it worked out very well.

The bearish price channel represented within the price chart below by the linear regression analysis has been broken to the upside, so we see a short to medium-term trend change from bearish to bullish. The main cause of the price rising today is the impact of the US Supreme Court’s decision to strike down President Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs, which was immediately followed by President Trump imposing a new global 15% tariff on the basis of another law which arguably gives him the power to do so. This has generated confusion and triggered a minor selloff in all US assets including the US Dollar.

As it looks like being a relatively quiet Monday, and as there are quite evenly balanced support and resistance levels close to the current price action, I think the price will probably remain between $1.1805 and $1.1840, but it could break down below $1.1800 which would be a bearish sign.

Scalps from bounces off these levels are probably the best strategy during today’s London session here.