Elon Musk’s sweeping attempt to reshape American politics through a combination of financial firepower and bureaucratic upheaval faltered Tuesday night, as Democrats clinched a key victory in Wisconsin’s Supreme Court race and narrowed the gap in two deep-red Florida congressional districts.
Democrats scored a high-profile victory in Wisconsin, where Susan Crawford defeated Trump- and Musk-backed Brad Schimel in the state’s judicial race — the sole statewide election before November. The win secured a liberal majority on the state’s Supreme Court for at least the next three years and has already sparked quiet panic within Republican circles over Musk’s growing political influence in the Trump administration.
While Supreme Court elections had historically drawn limited attention, the recent contest in the Badger state became a pivotal battleground. Musk said the race would determine nothing less than “the future of America and Western Civilization. Most political pundits viewed it in somewhat less dire terms, but still the first big test of the second Trump term—with the potential to reshape the ideological balance of the courts in a key swing state.
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The showdown between Crawford and Schimel became the most expensive judicial race in U.S. history, with over $98 million spent. While Musk backed Schimel, George Soros supported Crawford (though to a much smaller degree), turning the race into a political bellwether during Trump’s second term.
A similar dynamic played out in Florida, where voters cast ballots in two special congressional elections that became an unexpected source of concern for Republicans. Democrats poured millions into the races, hoping to flip seats in heavily pro-Trump districts.
By focusing on Musk, Democrats got it right
Charlie Kirk, the conservative activist and podcaster whose group worked alongside Musk to boost the conservative-aligned Schimel in Wisconsin, argued Tuesday’s Supreme Court loss underscored a fundamental challenge for Republicans, particularly in races in which Trump is not on the ballot — which, putting aside the president’s flirtations with an unconstitutional third term, translates to every race going forward.
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Fresh off a humbling defeat in November, Democrats knew targeting Trump wasn’t their path to victory—he had just flipped Wisconsin in the presidential election five months earlier. So instead, they zeroed in on Musk, a more polarizing and less politically tested figure.
Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) had become a centerpiece of Donald Trump‘s early second-term agenda, driving deep cuts across federal agencies. But on the campaign trail, it became a political albatross, with Democrats using Musk’s public image—and his unlimited money—to rally turnout.
While Musk was not on the ballot, his influence was everywhere. In Wisconsin, Musk’s PAC poured over $21 million into the campaign backing Schimel, traveling to the state to hand out $1 million sweepstakes checks and smaller $100 giveaways to registered voters who signed a petition or referred others to sign.
The spectacle drew national headlines—and a legal challenge from Wisconsin’s Democratic attorney general, who called it bribery. The state’s Supreme Court declined to hear the case.
“This was the first real test following the November election,” Mandela Barnes, the former lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, told Newsweek. “It was the first opportunity for a referendum on Donald Trump, and it happened just under 90 days into his term. There was a lot of frustration out there, which was why someone like Elon Musk was spending so much money—more than any individual ever had in a judicial race in this country.”
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Democratic strategist Doug Gordon told Newsweek that perhaps the richest man in the world had miscalculated his popularity and influence with voters—even among the GOP faithful. “It was clear that his efforts to take a chainsaw to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are deeply unpopular with the majority of voters,” Gordon said.
Growing Discomfort
Musk’s favorability has been in steady decline amid mounting backlash to the cuts being made across the government by DOGE. A recent poll by the Harvard Center for American Political Studies and HarrisX, conducted among 2,746 registered voters from March 26–27, found that 49 percent view Musk unfavorably, compared to just 39 percent who view him favorably.
“All of his polling is trending downward,” said Alex Patton, a Florida-based Republican consultant, in an interview with Newsweek.
Democrats have capitalized on that, wasting no time casting Musk as the unfathomably wealthy face of government austerity and corporate overreach. In a series of attack ads in Wisconsin, Musk was shown wielding a chainsaw, slashing funding for Medicare, cancer research and environmental protections.
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“It wouldn’t take much to turn him into a caricature,” Patton added. “If Democrats wanted, they could easily make Elon Musk into their version of Nancy Pelosi—a go-to villain.”
Others agree. “Elon makes a very resonant villain for Democrats,” said Matt Bennett, a Democratic strategist. “He’s simply vandalizing the government, cutting things that no one wants cut.”
Carter Wrenn, a longtime Republican strategist, echoed the concern. “Yes, polls are showing his popularity is upside down. That could definitely be a problem—especially with swing voters, independents, and ticket-splitters. Musk, personally, carries some negative baggage that could hurt.”
The strategy may already be having an effect. In Florida, where Republicans were expected to cruise to victory in two congressional districts that Trump carried by more than 30 points, Democrats didn’t win—but came closer than many expected. “FL-6 should be a cakewalk for any breathing Republican,” Patton said. “The fact that it had anyone concerned shows the public perception problem.”
Still, some Republicans say the alarm over Musk’s political influence is overblown. Matt Terrill, a GOP strategist, pushed back on the idea that the Wisconsin judicial election was a referendum on Musk or had broader national implications.
“This was a Wisconsin Supreme Court race,” Terrill told Newsweek. “It’s about the issues facing voters in that state, especially around the court. Was Musk involved? Sure—his PAC money was there. But that’s not what decided the race.”
Wrenn also cautioned against reading too much into the loss. “We’re not at that point yet,” he said. “Ultimately, this election was still about Trump, not Musk.”
