What’s New
The Chinese military may have deployed a new long-range missile that can carry either conventional or nuclear warheads, the Pentagon said in its report last week. Experts told Newsweek that such a dual-capable missile will give China an advantage in a nuclear war.
The Chinese defense ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Why It Matters
The United States Defense Department released its annual Chinese military power report last Wednesday, which said China has over 600 nuclear warheads, about 100 more than last year’s estimate, as well as 400 nuclear missiles that can strike the U.S. mainland.
The newly fielded Chinese DF-27 ballistic missile, which can be used to strike high-value targets in Guam, came as the U.S. military on December 10 conducted a ballistic missile intercept test in the westernmost U.S. territory in the Pacific Ocean for the first time.
U.S. Missile Defense Agency
What To Know
Last year, the Pentagon assessed that the DF-27 was still “in development.” However, the missile may now have equipped the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force, or PLARF, which is responsible for China’s land-based nuclear and conventional ballistic missiles.
The missile “has a HGV [hypersonic glide vehicle] payload option as well as conventional land-attack, conventional antiship, and nuclear capabilities,” the Pentagon’s report added. The HGV is the missile’s warhead that travels greater than five times the speed of sound.
The DF-27 is the third Chinese dual nuclear-conventional ballistic missile, in addition to the medium-range DF-21 and the intermediate-range DF-26 ballistic missiles. It is said to have a range between 5,000 km and 8,000 km (3,106 miles and 4,970 miles), designating it as an intermediate-range or intercontinental ballistic missile, according to the report.
The DF-27 may have similar capabilities to the DF-26 while extending operational range, said Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The DF-26 can rapidly switch warheads in the field based on operational requirements, which offers a military flexibility that China likely values, he explained to Newsweek in an email.
Andy Wong – Pool/Getty Images
“During a conventional conflict, an adversary’s inability to distinguish between nuclear and conventionally armed DF-27s could deter attacks on these missiles, since accidentally striking nuclear-armed variants might trigger unintended escalation,” he said. China could exploit this ambiguity and adversaries’ escalation concerns to shield its missile forces.
Decker Eveleth, an analyst with the CNA Corporation (Center for Naval Analyses), also told Newsweek via email that both the DF-26 and the DF-27 are capable of fielding a variety of payloads for specific missions, including a nuclear targeting option. “This allows China to entangle their conventional with their nuclear capabilities,” he added.
What People Are Saying
Tong Zhao told Newsweek on Sunday: “This dual-capability could enhance the survivability of China’s missile forces. If the DF-27 had separate nuclear and conventional variants, destroying the nuclear-capable missiles would reduce China’s nuclear strike capability with that system, even if the warheads survived. However, if all DF-27 missiles can accommodate both warhead types, losing some missiles would not significantly degrade China’s nuclear deterrent.”
Decker Eveleth told Newsweek on Sunday: “If every launcher is technically also a nuclear asset the theory goes [the] U.S. may be less confident about striking it as it may generate escalation. This allows China to strike U.S. assets with conventional weapons but implicitly threaten a nuclear response if [the] U.S. did the same thing to China.”
What Happens Next
China may be exploring development of intercontinental range missiles armed with conventional warheads, in addition to the nuclear variant that is in service. This would enable it to conduct non-nuclear strikes on the contiguous U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii.
