Donald Trump’s latest approval ratings are painting a bleak picture for the president, according to election analyst Nate Silver, who said Trump is getting “mostly bad news” from recent polls.
On Sunday, Trump’s net approval rating fell to -10.3, matching his previous low from July 22, according to Silver’s tracker. While it inched back up to -9.3 on Monday, the modest rebound was driven largely by a single InsiderAdvantage poll showing him at +6.
Not only was that down from +10 in last month’s survey, it was also an outlier amid a series of far less favorable results.
Why It Matters
Declining approval ratings signal potential vulnerability for the president and his party heading into 2026 and the midterms, raising questions about whether the coalition that powered his 2024 comeback is beginning to fracture.
What To Know
Most recent polls have painted a bleak picture for Trump. Surveys from major institutions—including The New York Times/Siena College (-11), Pew Research Center (-18), Marist College (-12), Marquette Law School (-14), YouGov/The Economist (-14), Morning Consult (-6), Quinnipiac University (-16) and YouGov/Yahoo News (-14)— all show the president with negative net approval ratings.
Silver said the broad consistency of these numbers suggests this is “about as unpopular as Trump 2.0 has been thus far.”
Adding to the concern for Trump’s team, the share of Americans who strongly disapprove of him climbed to 44 percent on Sunday in the Silver Bulletin average—the highest level of his second term — before dipping only slightly to 43.5 percent the following day.
The latest polls conducted since the government shutdown have also shown Trump’s approval rating in the negative.
The federal government shut down last week after Congress failed to break a funding deadlock and pass a measure to keep agencies running. The government funding dispute largely centers on whether to include an extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies in the spending bill. Democrats say health care protections must be preserved, while Republicans say funding and policy should be handled separately.
A Morning Consult poll conducted October 3–5 put his net approval at -6, while a YouGov/CBS News poll from October 1–3 showed an even steeper -16. A TIPP Insights/Issues & Insights poll conducted September 30–October 2 found Trump’s net approval at -4, and a HarrisX/Harris Poll/Harvard CAPS survey from October 1–2 recorded -4 as well.
But while Trump’s approval rating is underwater, these polls have largely shown that the president’s approval rating has remained stable amid the shutdown, changing only by 1 or 2 points since last month.
Victor Allis, lead pollster for ActiVote, told Newsweek that this is because the electorate is already “highly polarized.” The latest ActiVote poll from September showed that 94 percent of left-wing voters disapprove of Trump, while 92 percent of right-wing voters approve, and 41 percent in the center approve.
“That polarized pattern suggests that any movement related to the shutdown, will likely be small, as there is little room for the left to disapprove more, there is little room for the right to approve more, so that a core level of approval and disapproval is baked in, reducing the chance of large swings,” Allis said.
Still, polls show that Americans blame Republicans for the shutdown more than they blame the Democrats, which could hurt Trump’s approval ratings going forward. A Washington Post poll found that 47 percent blame Republicans and Trump, while 30 percent blame Democrats
A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll of 1,477 U.S. adults at the end of September found that 38 percent said Republicans would be most to blame for a shutdown, while 27 percent said Democrats would be to blame. The margin of error for the overall sample is 3.1 percentage points.
YouGov polling, published on Friday, showed that 45 percent of Americans said Trump was very responsible for the shutdown, 45 percent blamed congressional Republicans, and 36 percent said congressional Democrats were responsible. The margin of error was approximately 2.5 percentage points.
On Monday, Republicans and Democrats failed to reach an agreement on legislation to fund the government.
What Happens Next
Political strategists and pollsters say sustained sub-majority approval ratings can harm the sitting president’s party in midterm elections by motivating opposition turnout and complicating messaging for swing-district Republican candidates.
Whether Trump’s approval holds up in the coming weeks will depend on how long the shutdown lasts, how much it disrupts the economy, and whether voters ultimately blame him, Republicans or Democrats.
