President Donald Trump is now facing a crisis of confidence on the economy, according to a new poll.
The latest CNBC poll, conducted between October 8-12, shows that Trump’s approval rating on the economy stands at 42 percent, with 55 percent disapproving.
The -13 net approval on the economy is the lowest of any CNBC survey during either of Trump’s two terms.
Why It Matters
The economy is foundational to presidential success, and when voters lose faith in a leader’s economic performance, it can erode support across other policy areas and weaken electoral prospects.
Trump’s steep drop in economic approval suggests that even among his base there may be wavering confidence — and for a president whose 2026 midterm ambitions rely on strong Republican turnout, this could be a troubling sign.
Public Confidence in Trump’s Economic Policies Plummets
Just 34 percent of Americans approve of his handling of inflation and the cost of living, while 62 percent disapprove — the worst showing in three CNBC polls conducted during his second term. Only 41 percent approve of his new tariff policies, compared with 56 percent who disapprove, a net rating of –15 points, down from –6 in the previous quarter.
Public sentiment toward the broader economy has also soured. Just 27 percent of respondents describe the economy as “good” or “excellent,” while 72 percent call it “fair” or “poor.” Expectations for the next year have weakened as well: only 32 percent believe conditions will improve in 2026, down from 37 percent last quarter, and 46 percent think things will get worse.
Economic anxiety is also affecting perceptions of job security. More than one-quarter of workers say they fear losing their jobs within the next year — the highest share since 2022 — even though 58 percent say they could likely find new work with similar pay and benefits.
College-educated and salaried workers are reporting higher uncertainty than average, and only one-third of employed Americans expect their pay to rise in the next 12 months.
The gloomy outlook comes as inflation ticked up to 2.9 percent in August — the highest since January, according to the latest data from Trading Economics. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3 percent, its highest level in four years, signaling that the job market is softening after two years of strong growth.
Weekly jobless claims remain volatile, hovering around 217,000 as of mid-October, while consumer confidence has stagnated at historically low levels.
“It is clear that the cost of living in Americans’ own personal lives is much more likely to be weighing them down about their economic confidence than the shutdown,” Micah Roberts, partner at Public Opinion Strategies, the Republican pollster for the survey, told CNBC.
Shutdown Could Affect Economy
Meanwhile, concerns over the economy are mounting after the government shutdown entered its third week this week.
The federal government shuttered at the beginning of the month after Congress failed to break a funding deadlock and pass a measure to keep agencies running. The government funding dispute largely centers on whether to include an extension of Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies in the spending bill.
Democrats say health care protections must be preserved, while Republicans say funding and policy should be handled separately.
As the shutdown continued, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned on Monday that it was “starting to affect” the U.S. economy. “This is getting serious. It’s starting to affect the real economy. It’s starting to affect people’s lives,” he told Fox News.
Analysts estimate it could shave roughly 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points off economic growth for each week that it continues. Meanwhile, the Treasury said the shutdown could cost U.S. economy $15 billion a week.
The shutdown has also left federal workers unpaid, with around 4,000 federal workers laid off and key services suspended, with no end in sight as both parties hold firm.
The CNBC survey of 1,000 people nationwide found 53 percent of respondents blaming the potential economic fallout from the shutdown on Republicans in Congress and the president, compared with 37 percent for Democrats.
Peter Loge, a professor of political communication at George Washington University, told Newsweek: “A lot of Americans are feeling anxious about the economy. They are unsure what impact tariffs will have, the economic impact of the government shutdown will start rippling across the economy soon, and most people see the gap between the richest Americans and everyone else growing wider. That anxiety is reflected in the polling.”
He added: “People mostly want the economy to work and want to believe they can have a better future if they work hard and play by the rules. A lot of people think things aren’t working, that the economy is rigged against them, and that hard work no longer pays the bills. Those people blame the politicians in charge for the economy, Republicans are in charge, so voters are blaming Republicans.”
Overall Approval Rating Drops Slightly
Amid the turmoil, the CNBC poll showed Trump’s approval rating dropping slightly to 44 percent from 46 percent, while disapproval rose 1 percentage point to 52 percent.
Although the drop was only marginal, it marks a departure from the trend seen in his first term, when the president’s economic numbers were routinely positive and well above his overall polling.
“Most of the movement that’s happening now is among independents, and that’s important because we know … that independents are highly economically sensitive,” said Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research, the Democratic pollster for the survey.
“They’re less sensitive on partisan issues and they’re much more sensitive on financial and economic measures.”
But it comes as multiple polls have shown Trump’s approval rating ticking up slightly in the past few weeks. Newsweek’s tracker shows Trump’s net approval rating has crept up from -11 points before the shutdown began to -8 points, with 44 percent approving and 52 percent disapproving.
YouGov/Economist polling has also shown a small improvement in Trump’s popularity, with his net approval rising from -17 points last week to -15 points this week.
