A Pentagon report says the Chinese military experienced “a new wave” of corruption among its senior leaders last year that may have disrupted progress toward its military modernization goals, even as China ratcheted up aggression toward Taiwan and the Philippines.
The U.S. Department of Defense’s annual China Military Power report released Wednesday says at least 15 high-ranking military officers and defense-industry executives were removed from their posts between July and December 2023. Several of the leaders who were investigated and removed for corruption had overseen projects related to modernizing Chinese ground-based nuclear and conventional missiles.
“I think it’s (the corruption is) having some impact already,” said a senior defense official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity based on ground rules set by the Pentagon.
Corruption in the military is not new, but it seeped into the top military leadership when Chinese Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu was removed from office in late October last year. Li led the Central Military Commission Equipment Development Department from 2017 to 2022, where he would have signed off on all People’s Liberation Army, PLA, weapons acquisitions, before serving as defense minister.
China’s military goals include completing a modernization by 2035 and becoming a “world-class” military by the end of 2049. It also has set a 2027 goal as a short-term marker to make sure its modernization plans continue to progress. In 2027, the PLA will mark the 100th anniversary of its founding.
The report calls Chinese progress toward its stated 2027 capability milestone “uneven” without explicitly saying whether the Chinese military has been backsliding.
“We certainly do highlight and take very seriously the progress they’re making in a number of the areas that we noted in the report, and at the same time, we try to take note of those areas in which they’ve demonstrated some shortcomings,” the official added.
Despite China’s shrinking economy, Beijing’s defense spending was estimated at 40% to 90% more than it announced in its public defense budget, which equates to $330 billion to $450 billion in total defense spending for 2024.
Chinese nuclear and missile capabilities
China had more than 600 operational nuclear warheads in its stockpile as of mid-2024, according to the report, and will have more than 1,000 of these warheads by 2030. The arsenal’s growth is consistent with last year’s estimates.
The United States maintains about 1,550 active warheads, based on treaty agreements, but its nuclear arsenal and infrastructure is aging. The Pentagon plans to spend hundreds of billions of dollars over the next decade to update and replace it.
In addition, the report says, China is developing new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that will significantly improve its nuclear-capable missile forces, and it may also be exploring the development of conventionally armed intercontinental-range missile systems.
“If developed and fielded, such capabilities would enable the PRC to threaten conventional strikes against targets in the continental United States, Hawaii and Alaska,” the report said, using the abbreviation for China’s formal name, the People’s Republic of China.
The PRC continues to maintain the world’s leading hypersonic missile arsenal. Hypersonic weapons fly at five times the speed of sound and can maneuver and change trajectories during their glide phase, making them more difficult to defend against than ballistic missiles, which also fly at hypersonic speed but travel along a set trajectory.
PLA navy
The Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong (CV-17) carried out three deployments to the Philippine Sea in 2023, a record number for a Chinese carrier in a calendar year, according to the report. The PLA navy also carried out the first extended area deployment of its new Yushen-class amphibious assault ship.
The deployments show the PLA navy has continued to grow its ability to conduct missions beyond the first island chain that includes Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia and portions of the Philippines.
However, the senior official stressed, while the PLA has demonstrated some limited joint operational capabilities beyond the first island chain, its navy’s overseas activities in general lack inclusion from its army or air force and do not involve combat operations.
China has the largest navy in the world, based on the number of ships in its fleet, but its numbers remained consistent to last year’s assessment. The Chinese have more than 370 ships and submarines, with more than 140 of those considered major surface vessels.
In terms of producing military ships, maritime weapons and electronic systems, the report says, the Chinese defense industry is “nearly self-sufficient for all shipbuilding needs.”
Taiwan and the Philippines
Increased Chinese military pressure against Taiwan “continued to erode long-standing norms in and around” the democratic island in 2023, according to the report.
Beijing has stated it wants to be ready to control the island by 2027, by force if necessary. China maintains a naval presence around Taiwan, and it has increased crossings into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone and conducted major military exercises nearby.
This month, China massed dozens of navy and coast guard vessels in what appeared to be the largest maritime exercises targeting Taiwan since the 1990s.
This week alone, China sent several military aircraft toward Taiwan, with four of the aircraft crossing the middle line of the Taiwan Strait that forms an unofficial border between the sides, according to Taiwan’s Defense Ministry.
Despite this increasingly aggressive behavior, the senior defense official told reporters that conflict with China over Taiwan was not “imminent or inevitable.”
“We think that we have deterrence today that’s real and strong. We’re doing a lot to try to keep it that way,” the official told reporters.
Tensions with the Philippines were also “notably higher” last year, the report said. Chinese maritime vessels have used water cannon against Philippine vessels and even rammed into vessels that were trying to resupply the Second Thomas Shoal.
Since late 2023, however, the Chinese military has reduced the number of risky air intercepts of American military aircraft, according to the report, while continuing “unsafe maneuvers” near allied forces in the region.
The shift in behavior toward the U.S. military appeared to coincide with diplomatic developments: President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to resume military-to-military communication in late 2023.
Bradley Bowman, the senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, warned that China’s aggressive posture toward Taiwan and the Philippines is likely to continue until the United States and its allies shift Beijing’s cost-benefit analysis.
“Any reduction in direct aggressive activity toward the United States is a temporary measure and should not be misinterpreted as a fundamental change in Beijing’s grand strategy or hostility toward the United States and its interests,” he told VOA.
