The days when Beijing feared overpopulation feel like a distant memory. On
January 17, China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced a decline in
the country’s population for the third consecutive year. By the end of 2024,
China’s population was 1.408 billion, compared to 1.410 billion in 2023—a drop
of two million. The situation is expected to worsen in the coming years.
According to a World Population Prospects report, the number of Chinese
citizens could be halved by 2100.
To the government, any means is justified to boost the birth rate, even if
it means interfering in women’s private lives.
‘Hello, do you plan to have children?’
“Are you pregnant?” “When was your last period?” These
are the types of intrusive questions Chinese women of childbearing age might
face. According to an investigation by The New York Times, dozens of
Chinese women reported receiving intrusive phone calls from government
officials or family planning workers. Their goal? To encourage couples to have
one, two, or ideally three children. “These calls aim to exert strong
social pressure on women,” explained Isabelle Attané, a sinologist and
demographer at the French National Institute for Demographic Studies.
Amid demographic decline, the Chinese government appears willing to infringe
on women’s rights. Access to abortion—currently permitted at all stages of
pregnancy—has become a hot topic of debate in government circles. According to Isabelle
Attané, contraception is also now under scrutiny: “During the one-child
policy, all married couples had access to free contraception, but today the
government may roll back those measures.”
Economic sanctions
Despite its efforts, China has struggled to escape the demographic crisis it
has plunged itself into. In 1979, the People’s Republic of China implemented
the one-child policy. Economic penalties facilitated access to contraception, and even forced abortions allowed the government to limit births for nearly four decades.
“Chinese demographers sounded the alarm in the early 2010s when the
working-age population began to decline,” said Attané. However,
authorities waited until 2015 to address the issue. “The Population and
Family Planning Law was amended to allow all couples to have two children
starting in 2016,” she explained.
Starting a family: A costly investment
The government adjusted its natality policies again in 2021 when the second amendment to the Population and Family Planning Law was adopted. Couples can now have up to three children and receive public support. The law includes extended maternity leave, expanded childcare services in workplaces, and increased social benefits for parents.
These measures are especially welcome in a country where starting a family is a significant financial burden. A recent study published in Yangzi Wanbao found that China is the second-most expensive country in the world to raise a child, costing around $73,000—six times the per capita GDP.
However, not everyone benefits equally from these incentives. “While
the directives are national, provinces implement measures based on their
resources,” said Attané. As a result, wealthier regions are better
equipped to roll out social policies. Only major cities like Beijing and
Shanghai have been able to extend maternity leave, leaving other regions
behind.
