Chinese stocks are on a roll relative to their US peers as optimism over Beijing’s stimulus measures triggered a dramatic rebound. If history is any guide, the rally may have a long way to go, DataTrek Research says.
Consider the relative performance of the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) compared with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) over a 100-day time horizon, says the company. During periods of “positive shifts in Chinese policy” — such as 2009, 2015 and 2023 — local stocks typically outperform by 30 points or more. Right now, the relative outperformance sits at only 13 percentage points.
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