President Trump is likely to have “already taken the decision to hit” Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility, according to Sir Niall Ferguson, the Milbank family senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a senior faculty fellow of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard.
Ferguson told The Times CEO Summit: “My Israeli sources and some of my sources in Washington think it happens tonight.”
The Swiss National Bank has cut its interest rate by a quarter-point to zero in response to falling inflation, a stronger Swiss franc and economic uncertainty caused by America’s trade policy.
Markets had expected the move. It was the central bank’s sixth rate cut since March 2024.
Hays shares drop 14% on warning
The recruitment company’s shares dropped more than 14 per cent this morning after it warned that profits would be lower than expected. Tom Howard comments on Hays’ warning: “The recruitment market has been tough for two years now: the longest downturn anyone in the industry can recall.
“After the initial post-lockdown boom in hiring as the world reopened, many companies have become more cautious with the world stuck in a state of almost permanent uncertainty, be that because of sticky inflation and higher interest rates or wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. President Trump’s flip-flopping on tariffs has not helped either.
“On the other side, white-collar workers, many of whom moved jobs and got big pay rises a few years ago, are happy to stay put. They worry that if they move and the economic outlook does deteriorate, they could be the last in and first out.
“The industry has repeatedly had to push back its expectation of when the hiring market might start to pick up. Hays’ latest profit warning suggests the recovery is still a while away yet.”
FTSE 100: miners fall as oil shares rise
The FTSE 100 has opened 32 points, or 0.37 per cent, down at 8,811.03, after President Trump approved a plan to attack Iran, pending a final order. The more UK-focused FTSE 250 dropped 149 points, or 0.7 per cent, to 21,140.27.
The biggest fallers in early trading are miners, airlines and financial stocks. Oil stocks are among the biggest risers and defence shares are higher.
About-turn in futures: FTSE to open down
What a difference an hour makes. Earlier this morning, futures were pointing to the FTSE 100 opening 10 points higher. Now they are pointing to the index opening 30 points lower.
Investors are wary about the conflict in the Middle East and the Bank of England’s interest rate decision at noon.
The pound is weaker against the dollar at $1.3402, down 0.12 per cent.
CEO Summit: ready, steady …
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Morrisons can ‘ill afford more setbacks’
Morrisons blamed a sharp slowdown in first-quarter sales on a ransomware attack at Blue Yonder
ALAMY
Morrisons will deliver its second-quarter trading update later this morning, Isabella Fish, Retail Editor, writes. The UK’s fifth-largest grocer, owned since 2021 by the American private equity firm Clayton, Dubilier & Rice, reported like-for-like sales growth of 2.1 per cent in the three months to January 26, having risen 4.9 per cent in the previous quarter.
The grocer blamed the sharp slowdown in sales in the first quarter on a ransomware attack in November at Blue Yonder, its supply chain management software provider, which affected product availability and forced it to cut prices on some items.
Morrisons can ill afford any further setbacks as it undergoes a turnaround under Rami Baitiéh, its chief executive, who joined in 2023.
Corporate news this morning
Hays: The FTSE250 recruiter has warned that it expects to pre-exceptional operating profit to be about £45 million for the year to the end of June. Analysts had forecast profits of £56.4 million.
“Activity levels during our fourth quarter have reduced sequentially driven primarily by broad-based weakness in permanent markets globally, reflecting low levels of client and candidate confidence as a result of macroeconomic uncertainty. Temporary and contracting activity continues to be more resilient,” the company said.
Vodafone: The FTSE 100 telecoms company has appointed Pilar López as chief financial officer. The Microsoft executive will join in October 2025. Vodafone announced in May that Luka Mucic, the current finance chief, was leaving to lead Germany’s largest landlord.
Revolution Beauty: Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group has abandoned its bid to take over the struggling cosmetics business, which has put itself up for sale. Frasers had said this month that it was considering a bid for Revolution.
MPC forecast to vote 7-2 to hold
The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25 per cent to give it time to see if the economy and inflation continue to weaken amid a possible inflation shock from the Israel-Iran conflict.
Inflation cooled slightly in May to 3.4 per cent after a jump in April because price growth in the services sector, closely watched by the monetary policy committee (MPC), had dropped sharply. Wage growth has slowed, however, the job market is weaker and the economy shrank in April.
Economists expect the nine-member MPC to vote 7-2 to hold borrowing costs when the decision is released at noon. Beyond today’s meeting, investors think the Bank could lower rates one or two more times across the remaining four gatherings that will take place before the end of the year.
Middle East jitters to weigh on FTSE
Smoke rises from the Soroka medical centre in Israel following a missile strike from Iran
AMIR COHEN/REUTERS
The FTSE 100 is forecast to open 10 points higher, with investors wary over the possible entry of the United States into the Israel-Iran conflict.
President Trump kept the world guessing about whether America would join Israel’s bombardment of Iranian nuclear sites, saying at the White House yesterday: “I may do it. I may not do it.”
The Wall Street Journal said Trump had told senior aides he approved attack plans on Iran but was holding off on giving the final order to see if Tehran would abandon its nuclear programme. Overnight, Israel’s military said it was carrying out new strikes on Tehran and Iranian missiles hit a hospital in southern Israel.
In Japan the Nikkei sank 0.8 per cent, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong lost 1.7 per cent and Taiwan’s Taiex declined 1.6 per cent. The oil price rose 0.5 per cent to £77 a barrel and the gold price and the dollar strengthened.
Wall Street is closed today for a holiday.
Business leaders gather for The Times CEO Summit
How can the UK become a more attractive place for international investors? How can we encourage UK savers to invest more in the economy? What can the Labour administration do to attract the capital it needs for its ambitious plans?
Those questions will be top of the agenda this morning when UK business leaders, investors and senior politicians gather for The Times CEO Summit.
Executives from KKR and Blackstone, two of the UK’s biggest foreign investors, and a senior government minister will discuss investment in the country.
The skills we need in an era of AI and hybrid working will be discussed on a panel that includes Alison Brittain, chair of the Premier League, Kenton Jarvis, chief executive of easyJet, and Dame Carolyn McCall of ITV.
Richard Fletcher, Business Editor, will talk to Amanda Blanc, chief executive of Aviva, about her turnaround of the insurer and her plans following the £3.7 billion acquisition of rival Direct Line.
You can follow the summit on this blog, @TimesBusiness on Twitter or the hashtag #TimesCEOSummit.
