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MongoDB (MDB) has been drawing attention after a sharp pullback, with the share price showing a decline of about 29% over the past month and roughly 37% over the past 3 months.
See our latest analysis for MongoDB.
Zooming out, the recent 29% 1 month and 37% 3 month share price declines, with MongoDB now at US$260.50, sit against a 12 month total shareholder return of about 41%. As a result, recent momentum appears to be fading following a strong prior run.
If the recent pullback has you reassessing your tech exposure, this can be a handy moment to scan a focused list of 62 profitable AI stocks that aren’t just burning cash as potential next ideas.
With MongoDB now at US$260.50, trading at a small implied intrinsic discount and well below average analyst targets, investors may need to consider whether this represents a genuine reset or whether the market is already accounting for its future growth.
According to the widely followed narrative by Vestra, MongoDB’s fair value of $362.40 sits well above the last close at $260.50, framing the current slide as a valuation reset rather than a simple loss of interest.
The fair value for MongoDB (MDB) is calculated by applying a 10.5x Forward EV/Sales multiple to the 2027 revenue estimate of $2.88 billion. This specific multiple is a sharp reduction from the 15x to 18x range seen in 2024-2025, reflecting the lower 17% growth guidance and the inherent risk in a “C-suite” leadership transition during a critical AI cycle.
Curious what underpins a fair value well above today’s price? The narrative leans heavily on future revenue scale, richer margins and a cash generation profile that points to a very different earnings mix ahead.
Result: Fair Value of $362.40 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, this hinges on management executing through C suite turnover and on AI related demand not slowing further; both of these factors could challenge that fair value.
Find out about the key risks to this MongoDB narrative.
Set against Vestra’s 28.1% undervalued view, our P/S based work paints a tighter picture. At 8.5x P/S, MongoDB trades above the US IT industry at 1.8x, above peers at 6.4x, and above our 7.7x fair ratio, which suggests less room for error if growth expectations cool again.
