As China’s leaders chart the next 5-year plan, they hear echoes from long ago

As China’s leaders chart the next 5-year plan, they hear echoes from long ago

As China’s leadership meets this week to chart a policy course for the 15th five-year plan – China’s development blueprint for the rest of the decade – events that unfolded more than 70 years ago are echoing again.

The growing external challenges of today have similarities to those the country faced in the 1950s – export controls, restricted access to technology and a complex security environment. Amid elevated US-China tensions, Beijing is facing another moment of reckoning at a crossroads between pressure and transformation.

On Monday, China’s ruling Communist Party kicked off its fourth plenum of the Central Committee, a key four-day conclave that will map out its next five-year plan from 2026 to 2030, a period seen as crucial for Beijing to gain a stronger foothold in its growing rivalry with the United States.

On Monday morning, Xinhua published an article stating that over the past five years, China had “navigated shifting circumstances amid storms and challenges to forge new paths”.

The current global geopolitical landscape mirrors the Cold War era, with the former US-Soviet rivalry largely replaced by the escalating US-China competition, with historical parallels particularly visible in economic and security dynamics.

When Beijing launched its first five-year plan amid US sanctions during the Korean war, trade embargoes and isolation forced China to adopt state economic planning to industrialise in defiance of containment, and the country faced mounting concerns over regional security threats.

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