The shipping and packaging industry will likely see change in 2025 under Trump in ways that are also expected to impact supply chains and consumer markets.
Charles Haverfield, the CEO of US Packaging & Wrapping, believes there are five key trends that will reshape shipping in 2025. In the world of fashion, some supplier initiatives already had them ahead of the curve, but whether those plans will continue under Trump remains unclear.
America first and tariffs
The rise of America-first policies, including proposed tariff increases, will translate into greater uncertainty, Haverfield said.
For shippers, many companies are bracing for the changes by front-loading imports to beat tariff deadlines, a move that will add to cost management and logistics, as well as possibly lead to bottlenecks at warehouses and ports. He said some brands are moving to sourcing strategies that are closer to home to mitigate the impact of tariffs.
For consumers, trade groups such as the Retail Industry Leaders Association have noted that tariffs are regressive and result in a tax on consumers through price increases. And in the past few weeks when companies began reporting on third quarter earnings results, brands such as Columbia Sportswear and retailers such as Walmart have indicated that they likely will have to raise prices should the higher tariffs get implemented.
Artificial intelligence
If President-elect Trump loosens AI regulations, artificial intelligence could push advancements faster than expected in streamlining the shipping industry and in optimizing supply chains, Haverfield said.
Trucking experts have already touted how AI technology can provide increased transparency, such as AI-powered route optimization software that can provide real-time data to save both time and money with shorter estimated time of arrivals.
Carrier pricing strategies
Carrier pricing could soon be moving toward dimensional-weight pricing from the current actual weight practice, making it the new industry standard, Haverfield said.
According to the packaging CEO, the shift to dimensional-weight pricing will incentivize businesses to reduce the size and weight of their shipments. It’s a move that he said will maximize shipping efficiency because more efficiently packed items will take up less space, whether on trucks or places.
More sustainable packaging options
With better than 60 percent of consumers preferring environmentally friendly packaging options, brands will continue to innovate for alternatives other than plastic. Haverfield said that could include more paper-based packaging. He said the North American paper packaging market, with an annual growth rate of 4 percent, is expected to reach $116 billion by 2030.
A movement to more paper packaging is just the start. A plastic-free movement has Sway, a California start-up, working on a “breakthrough” biopolymer resin to replace plastic packaging with seaweed-based solutions. And outdoor apparel giant Patagonia—which recently joined sustainability nonprofit Canopy’s Pack4Good initiative—has committed to developing and scaling next-gen packaging solutions made from materials such as agricultural waste and non-forest alternative fibers.
Environmental sustainability goals
Haverfield believes that sustainability initiatives under the next Trump administration could get impacted and placed in limbo, despite pledges by many to prioritize environmental sustainability goals, such as reducing carbon emissions or plastic usage. He foresees some possible backpedaling should the re-elected Trump make good on prior vows to exit from the Paris accord.
Fashion firms and their suppliers are on different paths when it comes to reducing their impact. Nexgen Packaging earlier this year opened a new facility in Nairobi, Kenya, as its central hub across the African continent for apparel, footwear and home products made in Africa, providing sustainable options for labeling, tagging and packaging.
And then there’s Amazon, whose plastic packaging footprint is shrinking except in the U.S. A study from Oceana found that while the online marketplace has largely supplanted single-use plastic delivery packaging with 100 percent recyclable paper and cardboard counterparts in its European fulfillment network, it hasn’t made similar changes in its U.S. fulfillment operations. Amazon has disputed those findings, noting that the online Goliath has avoided tens of thousands of metric tons of new plastic each year in North America through efforts such as lightweighting, rightsizing and the use of paper and cardboard alternatives. What happens next under Trump’s next administration remains to be seen.
