Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday they are tracking a system in the Caribbean that could strengthen into Hurricane Sara next week.
The hurricane center said in an advisory Wednesday morning that a “broad area of low pressure” in the central Caribbean Sea continues to produce “a large area of showers and thunderstorms,” and that environmental conditions appear conducive for further development. The system was designated as Invest 99L by the hurricane center on Tuesday afternoon.
“A tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea,” the NHC said Wednesday. “Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend.”
Forecasters said the system is expected to turn slowly northwestward by early next week, and that interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
“Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over Jamaica during the next day or so,” the hurricane center said Wednesday.
Will Hurricane Sara impact the United States?
AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said Wednesday morning at least one scenario involves a hurricane moving into Florida next week.
“Wind shear remains low over much of the Caribbean, and waters are plenty warm (in the 80s F),” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said Wednesday. “And now, with showers and thunderstorms beginning to gather, it will likely not be much longer until the tropical rainstorm continues to organize into a tropical storm.”
“There are multiple scenarios with the feature in the Caribbean that are tied to the speed of development and track early on that could affect land areas with landfall and direct impacts later on,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said Wednesday. “Not only does this have a significant chance of becoming a hurricane, but it may become a major hurricane very quickly.”
If a tropical storm or hurricane forms in the western Caribbean, the track is likely to be heavily influenced by the position of a dome of high pressure along the southern Atlantic coast of the United States.
AccuWeather meteorologists said interests in Central America, from Nicaragua to Belize, in southeastern Mexico, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Florida and the Bahamas are “strongly recommended” to monitor the progress of this system.
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Invest 99L path tracker
Invest 99L spaghetti models
Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at Gdhauari@gannett.com.
