The British pound has been very noisy during the trading week as we continue to see a lot of back-and-forth action. Ultimately, the market continues to see the 1.3550 level above as a major barrier, but I do think it is probably only a matter of time before we at least test that area.
If we can break above there, then it’s very likely that we will continue to see more upward momentum, perhaps breaking out towards the 1.37 level. Ultimately, I like this as a market that we can try to take advantage of short-term dips, mainly due to the fact that markets are more likely than not going to continue to see a bit of volatility due to the interest rates in America being all over the place, but as we are starting to close out the week it does look like we are dropping a bit, and that, of course, helps with the British pound rallying against the US dollar.
The Euro has turned things around to show signs of life. I think ultimately this is a market that eventually goes looking to try to get back to the 1.18 level, but I also recognize that traders will be trying to figure out whether or not the interest rate situation in the United States finally calms back down.
Silver continues to be very noisy. I think ultimately the silver market ends up being one that is going to be noisy, but I also recognize that this is a market that will continue to see a lot of choppiness, mainly due to the fact that traders will be looking at this through the prism of whether or not interest rates are rising and, of course, what it is that you’re looking at when it comes to risk appetite and the US dollar in general.
With this, I like the idea of buying short-term dips, but I don’t necessarily think that we are looking for some type of massive move. If we were to break down below the $70 level, that could send this market much lower. I don’t necessarily think that happens easily, but it is something that could happen. All things being equal, I believe this is a lot of back-and-forth trading just waiting to happen.
Gold markets initially fell during the trading session on Monday, but they spent the rest of the week taking off to the upside. The markets continue to see a lot of interest right around the $4,600 level, and that, of course, is an area that has been very interesting for traders and, I think, will continue to be an area that we’ll have to watch.
If rates can continue to drop from here, we could see gold go looking to the $4,800 level. I remain bullish on gold for longer-term moves.
The US dollar is slightly positive against the Japanese yen during the trading week as it looks like the 160 yen level continues to be a significant barrier as the Bank of Japan has been very active in this market recently, with the idea that they are going to try to defend the yen. It, of course, is a currency that also has the lack of interest rates behind it to really strengthen it, so I do think it is probably only a matter of time before we see this market try to take that level out.
If we break down below the 158-yen level, that would be extraordinarily negative.
The US dollar rallied during the trading sessions of the last week and it looks like we gave back most of the gains against the Canadian dollar, so I think at this point in time we have to be very cautious, recognizing that the 50-week EMA seems to be offering a bit of a barrier.
If markets were to break down below the 1.3750 level, that could send this pair much lower. Over the longer term, I do believe that we probably continue to see a lot of back-and-forth trading, and with that being said, the market is likely to continue to be very noisy.
The Bitcoin market has fallen during the course of the week, but it has turned around to show signs of hesitation. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will have to make a bigger decision sooner or later, but right now it just doesn’t seem to be ready to launch to the upside.
I think we do grind to the upside eventually, but I think this takes some time to make happen. With this, I am looking for a little bit of a bounce this week. I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we see the market try to get back to the $77,000 level. With this, I suspect this is a market where a lot of patience will be necessary.
The DAX in Germany eventually saw selling after launching earlier in the week. It looks like the 25,000 level is trying to offer a little bit of support and I think, in general, we have a situation where traders are looking at this through the prism of trying to take advantage of dips.
And if we can break above this past week’s high near the 25,425-euro level, then I think market participants will really start to jump here.
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