Wia dis foto come from, Getty Images
- Author, Tom Bateman
- Role, BBC State Department correspondent
- Reporting from Washington DC
Donald Trump return to di White House go reshape US foreign policy, promising potentially radical shifts for multiple fronts as war and uncertainty dey for many parts of di world.
During im campaign Trump bin make plenty broad promises wey not too get specific details, based on di principles of non-interventionism and trade protectionism – or as im put am “America First”.
Im victory na sign of one of di most significant potential disruptions for Washington approach to foreign affairs in di midst of parallel crises for many years.
From im tok during im campaign and from im record as President fro 2017 to 2021, we fit put togeda some of im likely approach to different areas.
Russia, Ukraine and Nato
During di campaign, Trump tak am many times say im fit end di war between Russia and Ukraine “in a day”. Wen dem bin ask am how, e suggest say im go oversee a deal but e refuse to give details.
One research paper wey two of Trump former national security chiefs bin write for May, tok say di US suppose kontinu to dey supply Ukraine wit weapons, but make di support conditional if Kyiv go gree enta peace tok wit Russia.
To entice Russia, di West go promise to delay Ukraine from entering into Nato. Di former advisers say Ukraine no suppose give up dia hopes of getting all of dia territory back from Russian occupation, but say dem suppose negotiate based on current front lines.
Trump Democratic opponents, wey don accuse am of looking for friendship wit Russian President Vladimir Putin, tok say im approach amounts to surrender for Ukraine, and e go endanger all of Europe.
E don dey tok several times say im priority na to end di war and stop di drain on US resources.
E no clear how far di former advisers paper represent Trump own thinking, but e dey likely to give us a guide to di kind of advice e go get.
Im “America First” approach to ending di war also include to di strategic issue of di future of Nato, di transatlantic all-for-one and one-for-all military alliance set up afta World War Two originally as a defence against di Soviet Union.
Wia dis foto come from, Getty Images
Nato now don get more dan 30 kontris as members and Trump na long time critic of di alliance, as e accuse Europe of free-riding on America promise of protection.
Weda e go actually withdraw di US from Nato, wey go signal di most significant shift for transatlantic defence relations for nearly a century, na still matter for debate.
Some of im allies suggest say im hard line na just a negotiating tactic to get members to meet di alliance defence spending guidelines.
But di reality be say Nato leaders go dey seriously worried about wetin Trump victory go mean for dia future.
Di Middle East
As wit Ukraine, Trump don promise say im go bring “peace” to di Middle East – implying dat im go end di Israel-Hamas war for Gaza and di Israel-Hezbollah war for Lebanon, but e no tok how.
E don repeat several times say if na im bin get power rather dan Joe Biden, Hamas for no attack Israel sake of im “maximum pressure” policy on Iran, wey dey fund group.
E dey likely say Trump go attempt to return to di policy wey bin lead to di US pulling out of di Iran nuclear deal, apply greater sanctions against Iran and kill Gen Qasem Soleimani – Iran most powerful military commander.
For di White House Trump bin introduce strongly pro-Israel policies. E name Jerusalem as di capital of Israel and move di US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem – a move wey ginger Trump’s Christian evangelical base – a core Republican voter group.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu call Trump di “best friend wey Israel don ever get for di White House”.
But critics dey argue say im policy bin get a destabilising effect for di region.
Di Palestinians bin boycot di Trump administration, afta Washington abandon dia claim to Jerusalem – di city wey be di historical centre of national and religious life for Palestinians.
Dem bin dey further isolated wen Trump broker di so-called “Abraham Accords” wey bring one ogbonge deal to normalise diplomatic ties between Israel and several Arab and Muslim countries.
Di deal no require Israel to accept a future independent Palestinian state alongside it – di so-called two-state solution – wey be one of di conditions wey Arab kontris bin give for such a regional deal.
Di kontris involved, instead, bin get access to advanced US weapons in return for recognising Israel.
Di Palestinians bin dey one of di most isolated points for dia history by di only power wey fit apply leverage to both sides in the conflict – further eroding their ability to protect diasef on di ground, according to dem.
Trump bin make several statements during di campaign as e tok say e want di Gaza war to end.
Im get a complex relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel Prime Minister, but certainly e get di ability to apply pressure on am.
E also get history of strong relations wit leaders for di key Arab countries wey get contacts wit Hamas.
E neva dey clear how e go navigate between im desire to show strong support for the Israeli leadership while also trying to bring di war to a close.
Trump allies often dey portray im unpredictability as a diplomatic asset, but for di highly contested and volatile Middle East in midst of a crisis already of historical proportions, e no dey clear how dis go play out.
Trump gatz decide how – or weda – e go take forward di diplomatic process wey Biden bin launch to get ceazefire for in return for di release of the hostages held by Hamas.
China and trade
America approach to China na di most strategically important area of foreign policy for di kontri – and one wey get di biggest implications for global security and trade.
Wen im bin dey for office, Trump labelled China a “strategic competitor” and e impose tariffs on top some Chinese goods wey come from China into di US. Dis one cause a tit-for-tat tariffs by Beijing on top American goods.
Dem bin make efforts to de-escalate di trade dispute but di Covid pandemic wipe out dis possibility, and relations got worse as Trump bin label Covid as a “Chinese virus”.
While di Biden administration bin claim to take a more responsible approach to China policy, in fact e keep in place many of di Trump-era tariffs on imports.
Di trade policy don become closely linked to domestic voter perceptions for di US about protecting American manufacturing jobs – even though much of di long-term jobs decline for traditional US industries like steel na largely bicos of factory automation and production changes dan global competition and off-shoring.
Trump don praise Chinese President Xi Jinping as “brilliant” and “dangerous” and a highly effective leader who dey control 1.4 billion pipo with “iron fist”, and dis na part of wetin im opponents dey see as Trump admiration for “dictators”.
Di former president dey likely to shift away from di Biden administration approach of building stronger US security partnerships wit oda regional kontris in a bid to contain China.
Di US dey still maintain military assistance for self-ruled Taiwan, which China dey see as a breakaway province wey go eventually dey dia control.
In October, Trump tok say if e return to di White House, im no go need to use military force to prevent China from blockading Taiwan bicos President Xi know say im “dey crase”, and im go impose paralysing tariffs for Chinese imports if dat one happen.
