Published on
January 14, 2026
Japan’s tourism industry is preparing for a slight dip in international visitors in 2026, as major travel agency JTB Corp. predicts a 2.8% decline from the previous year. The forecast is a significant shift after five years of continuous growth, largely driven by tourism from China and Hong Kong. The current political tensions between Japan and China are expected to cause a downturn in travelers from East Asia, marking the first decline in foreign visitors in half a decade.
Despite this, the overall tourism outlook remains strong, with international travelers from Europe, the United States, and Australia expected to continue rising. Their longer stays and higher spending will help mitigate the effects of the decline, contributing to a modest increase in tourism revenue. The total tourism spending for 2026 is estimated to reach 9.64 trillion yen, a slight increase from the previous year.
Decline in Visitors from China and Hong Kong: A Shift in Japan’s Tourism Dynamics
Japan has been a top destination for travelers from East Asia, especially China and Hong Kong, with these markets contributing significantly to the overall visitor numbers. However, geopolitical tensions have started to take a toll on these regions’ tourism flows. Following remarks by Japan’s Prime Minister regarding Taiwan, China retaliated by advising its citizens against visiting Japan, leading to a sharp decline in tourist arrivals from mainland China and Hong Kong.
In 2025, China and Hong Kong collectively accounted for around 30% of Japan’s total visitors. However, these markets are now predicted to decrease by 7.6% in 2026. This trend primarily affects group tours, which have seen a significant drop due to heightened political sensitivity.
Growing Interest from the West: Europe, the U.S., and Australia to Boost Japan’s Tourism
While the number of tourists from East Asia is expected to decline, other regions are showing strong growth. In particular, Europe, the United States, and Australia are expected to continue increasing their tourist numbers to Japan. These regions have not only remained resilient in the face of global uncertainties but are also more inclined to take longer trips, contributing to higher per-capita spending. This is a positive shift for Japan’s tourism sector, as these visitors tend to spend more, thereby helping offset the decrease in visitors from East Asia.
The long-haul travelers from these regions tend to stay for extended periods, enjoying Japan’s rich cultural heritage, technological innovations, and unique natural landscapes. The continued growth in these markets points to a diversified tourism strategy that Japan has been focusing on in recent years, with increased efforts to attract travelers from beyond East Asia.
Impact of Political Tensions: What Tourists Should Know
For tourists planning a visit to Japan, it is essential to understand the impact of political tensions between Japan and China, as well as its influence on travel patterns. The recent deterioration in Japan-China relations has led to some travel restrictions and warnings, affecting the group tour segment. Travelers from China and Hong Kong may face difficulties, such as last-minute cancellations or travel advisories.
However, for those visiting from Europe, the U.S., or Australia, these political dynamics are less likely to affect travel plans. Japan remains a safe and attractive destination for visitors from these regions, with a rich array of cultural sites, stunning landscapes, and advanced cities to explore.
What to Expect in 2026: Rising Spending Despite Lower Visitor Numbers
Although Japan is experiencing a decline in visitor numbers overall, the tourism revenue is expected to increase. The number of tourists from Europe and the U.S. is predicted to rise, with higher spending per visitor. This is a reflection of the premium market where tourists are opting for more luxury travel experiences. From high-end hotels to gourmet dining, tourism expenditures are set to increase by 0.6%, reaching 9.64 trillion yen.
Additionally, unique travel experiences in Japan such as visits to historic temples, high-tech attractions in Tokyo, and natural hot springs across the country remain key drivers of tourism interest. Despite the decline in numbers, tourists are increasingly seeking unique cultural experiences, contributing to Japan’s tourism market’s resilience.
Navigating Japan’s Changing Tourism Landscape: Tips for Travelers
For those planning a trip to Japan in 2026, here are some travel tips to navigate the shifting landscape:
- Focus on Western Japan: With an influx of travelers from the West, Kyoto, Osaka, and Hokkaido are popular choices for those seeking cultural and natural experiences.
- Embrace Eco-Tourism: As Japan places more focus on sustainable travel, visiting eco-friendly attractions and national parks like Nikko and Shirakami-Sanchi can provide a unique, environmentally conscious travel experience.
- Consider Luxury Travel: With high-spending travelers expected to dominate, consider booking upscale accommodations or experiences such as private tours or stays in Japan’s renowned luxury ryokan inns.
- Stay Informed: Keep an eye on government travel advisories and updates from local authorities, especially if you are traveling from China or Hong Kong. Stay updated on visa policies and entry requirements, as these can fluctuate.
The Future of Japan’s Tourism Industry: A Mixed Outlook
Japan’s tourism industry faces a mixed outlook in 2026. While a decline in visitors from East Asia is expected due to the current political climate, Japan’s tourism sector is expected to remain robust thanks to the continued influx of travelers from Europe, the U.S., and Australia. The overall revenue from tourism is projected to rise, supported by longer stays and higher spending from these tourists.
Japan’s rich cultural heritage, diverse landscapes, and cutting-edge cities continue to attract visitors from around the world, even amidst political challenges in East Asia. The key takeaway for travelers is to stay informed and make sure to plan well in advance, especially if they are from countries experiencing diplomatic tensions with Japan.
