Redwire (RDW) shares have shown noticeable movement this month, with returns trailing considerably both over the past month and past 3 months. Investors might be re-evaluating their stance as the stock continues to lag behind broader market trends.
See our latest analysis for Redwire.
Although Redwire’s 3-year total shareholder return of nearly 148% shows what this stock can do in the right environment, momentum has faded lately with a sharp 33.6% drop in the 1-month share price return and a 67.8% decline year-to-date. After such a strong run, investors seem to be weighing both the potential for a turnaround and the risks that come with recent volatility.
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With a share price still far below analyst targets and strong long-term gains in its history, the key question is whether Redwire is currently undervalued or if the market has already accounted for its future prospects.
Redwire’s most-watched narrative assigns a fair value far above its last close, suggesting the current market price may not reflect the company’s growth expectations. The stage is set for future-defining catalysts as new government and commercial projects take shape.
The rapid proliferation of commercial satellites and upcoming public/private low Earth orbit projects continues to build demand for Redwire’s advanced in-space manufacturing, deployable structures, and subsystems. This supports multi-year visibility on high-margin product sales and recurring earnings.
Want to know what’s driving this optimistic outlook? The narrative is powered by sky-high revenue forecasts, profit margin shifts, and aggressive growth projections. Craving the numbers behind that big price gap? See how their bullish math could shift the game for Redwire.
Result: Fair Value of $17.17 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, risks such as unpredictable government contract delays and ongoing cost overruns could quickly undermine optimism and stall Redwire’s expected rebound.
Find out about the key risks to this Redwire narrative.
Looking beyond fair value estimates, Redwire is trading at a price-to-sales ratio of 3.1x. This is higher than the US Aerospace & Defense industry average of 2.9x and the peer average of just 1.7x. Compared to its fair ratio of 1.7x, the market currently prices in a good deal of optimism.
