The Trump administration is preparing a potential new front in its trade standoff with Beijing this time targeting software. Officials are weighing export restrictions that could block China’s access to critical US-made programs, from enterprise systems to advanced design tools. The White House confirmed the discussions after reports surfaced that Washington might deploy measures similar to those used against Russia if China doesn’t ease its limits on rare-earth exports. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said everything is on the table, including controls on software and engine technology, noting that any move would likely be coordinated with G7 allies.
For the tech world, the stakes could be high. Analysts say the restrictions could range from narrow export bans to a sweeping expansion of the Foreign Direct Product Rule potentially extending US control over foreign-made goods developed using American software. That could hit global firms like Cadence Design Systems, Dassault Systemes, and Synopsys, while also exposing Nvidia NVDA, Qualcomm 
QCOM, NXP, and even OpenAI’s AI platforms to new compliance risks. Bloomberg Economics’ Michael Deng noted the policy could be tough to execute, given that the Bureau of Industry and Security, the agency tasked with enforcing export controls, is already stretched thin.
President Donald Trump has also pledged to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and extend export controls on any and all critical software starting next month part of a broader response to Beijing’s curbs on rare-earth minerals and new port fees on US ships. Yet Trump struck a more optimistic note ahead of next week’s talks with President Xi Jinping, predicting a good deal could emerge. He said discussions would cover trade, rare-earths, and China’s purchases of Russian oil signaling that this next round of negotiations could shape far more than just tariffs.
