Political scientists and polling experts have pointed out that in previous government shutdowns (or near shutdowns) the party that tries to leverage the government’s closure for a policy win typically loses the battle of public opinion. But recent polling data suggests that Democrats are, at least for now, looking unusually strong in their quest to force Republicans to make concessions on health care policy.
More specifically, Democrats are withholding votes for a government funding bill to try to force GOP lawmakers to agree to an extension of expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies and a repeal of the Medicaid cuts. (Their alternate bill also limits Trump’s ability to freeze or rescind congressionally appropriated funding, and restores money for public broadcasting.) Those are big, and some might even say, quixotic, demands. But so far, the anomalous political dynamics of Trump’s second term seems to have given Democrats an unusual advantage — and that could bode well for their fortunes in next year’s midterm elections.
A shutdown likely scans to the average person as more contiguous with the president’s wants than his opposition’s.
During past shutdowns or near-shutdowns, voters have typically blamed the party not in the White House — except for when Trump himself instigated a shutdown in late 2018. This time, the polls look different. A Washington Post poll conducted on Oct. 1, the first day of the shutdown, found that the Democrats were looking strikingly strong: 47% of U.S. adults blamed Trump and Republicans in Congress, while 30% blamed Democrats and 23% said they weren’t sure. Part of that margin was because the share of Democrats blaming Trump and Republicans (87%) was larger than that of Republicans blaming Democrats (67%). But political independents were also more than twice as likely to say Trump and Republicans were to blame for the shutdown than Democrats, 50% to 22%.
To be clear, this survey was conducted on the very first day of the shutdown. If the shutdown extends for a long time and more government services shutter, it is possible that public sentiment will shift against Democrats. But that starting margin in that poll suggests Democrats have some room to breathe.
One plausible explanation for this breathing room is that Trump’s entire governance style in his second term has been to take a wrecking ball to the government. The result is that a shutdown likely scans to the average person as more contiguous with the president’s wants than his opposition’s. Trump has fired civil servants en masse, pursued sweeping cost-cutting through the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, and refused to spend foreign aid already allocated by Congress. His administration has pushed cuts that have increased call times to Social Security hotlines, lopped off workers at the Internal Revenue Service, eliminated USAID, and lifted regulations on all kinds of economic activity.
So much of Trump’s second term has been about shutting down huge swaths of the government, with Democrats objecting to it but with little recourse. It makes sense that some voters could perceive Democrats’ standoff with Trump now as attempting to obstruct that. And it’s true on a substantive policy level: Democrats’ demand for concessions is about pushing to protect government funds for health care for vulnerable Americans.
The polling on health care is even more favorable for Democrats than it is on the shutdown. A poll by KFF, a nonpartisan health policy research group, conducted between Sept. 23 and Sept. 29 found that 78% of U.S. adults say they want Congress to extend the enhanced tax credits available to people with low and moderate incomes to make the health coverage purchased through the Affordable Care Act’s marketplace more affordable. That vast majority includes 59% of Republicans, 92% of Democrats and 82% of independents.
The White House is aware of its vulnerability on health care. The Wall Street Journal, citing administration officials, reports that White House “advisers are worried that the GOP will take the blame for allowing healthcare subsidies to expire, raising costs for millions of Americans ahead of next year’s midterm elections.” The Journal also reports that inside the White House, aides are discussing proposals to extend the ACA subsidies, despite Trump’s public insistence that he won’t back down.
So when it comes to health care, Democrats are well-positioned on both the merits and the politics. The shutdown spotlights the same issue and stakes that helped them perform strongly in the midterm elections against Trump in 2018. But whether Americans will continue to approve of the tactical approach that Democrats have taken to health care demands remains to be seen. It’s a gamble — but the early returns look surprisingly promising.
