Will Trump Trade Taiwan for a China Deal? Xi Jinping Thinks He Might | Asia

Will Trump Trade Taiwan for a China Deal? Xi Jinping Thinks He Might | Asia

Trump and Xi are expected to meet at the Asia-Pacific summit in South Korea later this year. (Source: X)

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Chinese President Xi Jinping is preparing to press Donald Trump to change long-standing US policy on Taiwan during a planned series of meetings in the coming year, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.

Citing people familiar with the matter, the report said Xi’s goal is to secure a formal US statement “opposing” Taiwan’s independence, a shift that Beijing believes could isolate Taipei and bolster China’s leverage.

Since taking power in 2012, Xi has made “reunification” with Taiwan a central part of his vision for China’s “national revival.” Now well into his third term, he has repeatedly declared that Taiwan’s return to Chinese control is “inevitable” and that outside powers cannot prevent it.

The Biden administration’s formulation that Washington “does not support” Taiwanese independence reassured Beijing but did not mark a policy change. Xi, the Journal said, now seeks a stronger wording, one that would explicitly align Washington with Beijing’s position.

A State Department spokesperson told The Wall Street Journal that the current US stance remains unchanged: “We have long stated that we oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side. China presents the single greatest threat to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”

Analysts said that Xi believes Trump may be more open to the change in exchange for economic concessions. “Driving a wedge between Washington and Taipei is the holy grail of the Taiwan problem for Beijing,” Evan Medeiros, a former senior US national security official, told the Journal.

Trump and Xi are expected to meet at the Asia-Pacific summit in South Korea later this year, followed by potential reciprocal visits to Beijing and Washington in 2026. These meetings will depend on progress in trade talks and Chinese cooperation on curbing fentanyl production.

The report also noted signs of uncertainty in US-Taiwan relations. The Trump administration recently delayed military aid to Taipei and denied President Lai Ching-te a US transit stop, prompting him to cancel a trip to Latin America.

Officials told the Journal that the decision aimed to avoid influencing Taiwan’s domestic politics, not to signal reduced support. They added that the administration remains focused on deterring Chinese military action and encouraging Taiwan to strengthen its self-defence capabilities.

While the Biden-era phrasing on Taiwan independence has been removed from recent US policy documents, senior officials insist that the overall “One China” policy remains unchanged.

“No US policy change on Taiwan will happen overnight,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center. “China will push persistently to inch forward and, in the process, undermine Taiwan’s confidence in US commitment.”

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