President Trump’s weekend volley of fresh tariff threats – a 30% levy on most imports from the European Union and Mexico – has shaken global markets and unsettled investors just as they prepare to digest a deluge of economic data and corporate earnings reports.
The White House has just announced a 30% tariff on European products, unless there is an immediate capitulation by 1 August. Brussels, more adept at dialogue than arm wrestling, seems to have been caught off guard once again. It is 30% for Mexico as well.
At first glance, Monday morning’s dip in U.S. futures — the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all down by roughly 0.3% — might seem modest. But don’t let the tempered reaction deceive you. These measured losses aren’t a sign of market confidence; they are a signal of fatigue, a wearied acceptance that erratic threats have become the new normal. Investors have grown used to Trump’s high-octane tariff theatrics, often waiting to see whether bark turns into bite. But with the president setting an aggressive August 1 deadline, this latest round feels different: more pointed, less performative.
At the heart of this escalating trade drama is a familiar strategy: deploy tariffs as both sword and shield in a sprawling negotiation game. The administration has repeatedly employed this tactic, rattling sabers to force nations into economic submission or, at the very least, to the negotiating table. Yet the cost of this strategy is mounting, and its diminishing returns are becoming harder to ignore.
Consider the broader economic tableau: the market is entering earnings season, with financial heavyweights like JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo set to report. Wall Street had hoped for clarity, a sense of how corporations are navigating a post-pandemic economy buffeted by inflationary aftershocks and shifting consumer behavior. But instead, investors are being forced to price in geopolitical risk that remains stubbornly unpredictable.
Then there’s inflation. Tuesday’s consumer price index report, followed closely by producer and import prices later in the week, will offer the first clues as to whether these tariff threats are more than just rhetorical smoke. With a 50% tariff on copper already imposed last week, and threats spreading to long-standing allies like Canada, Japan, and South Korea, any indication that prices are beginning to climb could tie the Federal Reserve’s hands even further.
Indeed, while traders have mostly ruled out a July rate cut from the Fed, the path forward for monetary policy remains murky. The administration’s antagonism toward the central bank — amplified by economic adviser Kevin Hassett’s suggestion that Trump might fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell — only compounds this uncertainty. If investors begin to see the Fed not as an independent actor but as a potential political pawn, the consequences could stretch far beyond this week’s data points.
Not all corners of the market are suffering. Crypto stocks surged as Bitcoin broke through the $120,000 barrier, with Coinbase, Bitfarms, and Riot Platforms all enjoying healthy premarket gains. It’s ‘Crypto Week’, during which Congress could pass a series of bills that would anchor the crypto industry in the financial landscape. Boeing, too, found a rare bright spot, rising after preliminary findings in an Air India crash investigation suggested no immediate fault on the company’s part.
As mentioned above, the third week of July marks the return of results from the heavyweights on the stock market. In the United States, the big banks, led by JPMorgan Chase, will kick things off on Tuesday. Netflix, GE Aerospace and PepsiCo will also be in action. In Europe, ASML, Rio Tinto, Compagnie Financière Richemont, Novartis and ABB will be the headliners.
In Asia-Pacific, equity markets remained relatively stoic in the face of a barrage of letters from the White House. Japan and Australia were just slightly down and Hong Kong ended the session in the pale green, while South Korea was up 0.7%. The Indian (-0.4%) and Taiwanese (-0.8%) markets started the week in the red. European indices are down.
Today’s economic highlights:
On today’s agenda: industrial production in Germany. See the full calendar here.
- Dollar index: 97,540
- Gold: $3,370
- Crude Oil (BRENT): $71.38 (WTI) $69.50
- United States 10 years: 4.42%
- BITCOIN: $12,419
In corporate news:
- Zimmer Biomet will acquire Monogram Technologies for $177 million in cash, with additional milestone-based payments up to $12.37 per share, aiming to enhance its robotics portfolio and drive revenue growth from 2027.
- Autodesk is reportedly no longer pursuing an acquisition of PTC, marking a shift in its M&A intentions.
- Tesla will face its first-ever jury trial over a fatal autopilot-related crash, raising questions about its driver assistance system’s capabilities and accountability.
- Southwest Airlines plans to launch flights to St. Thomas in the US Virgin Islands in 2026, expanding its Caribbean network.
- McGraw Hill, backed by Platinum Equity, targets a $4.2 billion valuation in its IPO, signaling renewed private equity interest in public listings.
- Fastenal beat Q2 estimates with strong demand for safety products, posting $2.08 billion in revenue and 29 cents EPS.
- Kenvue CEO Thibaut Mongon stepped down amid a strategic review and potential divestitures in its skin-health and beauty division, with Kirk Perry appointed interim CEO.
- Synopsys received conditional approval from China for its $35 billion acquisition of Ansys, clearing the last regulatory hurdle.
- Wabtec received UK antitrust clearance for its acquisition of Dellner Couplers, enabling the €890 million deal to proceed.
- Sun Pharma launched its anti-baldness drug Leqselvi in the US, following a patent dispute settlement with Incyte.
- BYD plans to triple its footprint in Saudi Arabia by 2026, responding to Tesla‘s market entry.
- Amazon reported a record-breaking Prime Day 2025, with historic sales volumes and high engagement via its AI assistant Rufus.
- Waters Corp will merge with Becton Dickinson’s biosciences and diagnostics business in a $17.5 billion deal, creating a $6.5 billion revenue company by 2025.
- A Google-backed coalition will invest $1.7 million in early-stage ocean and rock carbon removal startups to accelerate scalable climate solutions.
- Kraft Heinz is considering spinning off a large part of its food business, including many Kraft products, according to Reuters.
- Shareholders of Walgreens Boots Alliance have approved the transaction with Sycamore Partners.
- The CEO of Nvidia will hold a press conference in Beijing on 16 July.
- Apple has offered at least $150 million per year for the streaming rights to Formula 1, according to Business Insider.
- Warner Bros‘ Superman has grossed $217 million since its release.
Analyst Recommendations:
- Best Buy Co., Inc.: Piper Sandler & Co downgrades to neutral from overweight with a target price reduced from USD 82 to USD 75.
- Chevron Corporation: Gerdes Energy Research LLC downgrades to neutral from buy with a target price of USD 166.
- Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Rothschild & Co Redburn downgrades to sell from neutral with a target price reduced from USD 94 to USD 83.
- Cloudflare, Inc.: President Capital Management Corp downgrades to neutral from buy with a target price raised from USD 170 to USD 188.
- Crowdstrike Holdings, Inc.: Morgan Stanley downgrades to equalwt from overwt with a target price raised from USD 490 to USD 495.
- Global Payments Inc.: TD Cowen upgrades to buy from hold with a target price of USD 84.
- Kkr & Co. Inc.: Citizens downgrades to market perform from market outperform.
- Nextracker Inc.: Mizuho Securities downgrades to neutral from outperform with a price target reduced from USD 67 to USD 65.
- Nvidia Corporation: Phillip Securities upgrades to buy from accumulate with a target price of USD 145.
- The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.: Citizens downgrades to market perform from market outperform.
- Albemarle Corporation: Wells Fargo maintains its equalweight recommendation and raises the target price from 60 to USD 75.
- Block, Inc.: Goldman Sachs maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 57 to USD 80.
- Caterpillar Inc.: Bernstein maintains its market perform recommendation with a price target raised from 304 to USD 432.
- Coinbase Global, Inc.: Keefe Bruyette & Woods maintains its market perform recommendation with a price target raised from 205 to USD 355.
- Doordash, Inc.: KeyBanc Capital Markets maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 235 to USD 295.
- Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.: Keefe Bruyette & Woods maintains its market perform recommendation with a target price reduced from 175 to USD 59.
- Oracle Corporation: Evercore ISI maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 215 to USD 270.
- Phillips 66: Jefferies maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 110 to USD 134.
- Robinhood Markets, Inc.: Keefe Bruyette & Woods maintains its market perform recommendation with a price target raised from 47 to USD 89.
- Seagate Technology Holdings Plc: BNP Paribas Exane maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target raised from 100 to USD 150.
- The Carlyle Group Inc.: Keefe Bruyette & Woods maintains its market perform recommendation with a price target raised from 45 to USD 60.
- Toast, Inc.: Goldman Sachs maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target raised from 36 to USD 45.
- Uber Technologies, Inc.: KeyBanc Capital Markets maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 90 to USD 110.
- United Rentals, Inc.: Bernstein maintains its market perform recommendation with a price target raised from 666 to USD 856.
