Little BYD Surf Debuts In Europe As ICE Reprieve Pressure Mounts

The European Union’s sales targets for electric vehicles in 2030 and 2035 look impossible, despite the imminent arrival of EVs like BYD of China’s cut-price Surf, likely to be affordable, finally, for average wage earners.

Political pressure is mounting on the EU to end its insistence that EV is the only available technology in 2035’s new car market. The case for alternative technologies is gaining ground as Chinese competition accelerates in a market where European EVs lag and overall sales are expected to stagnate in 2025.

Europe’s automotive industry needs to accelerate sales but most EV sedans and SUVs have been very expensive starting at around €30,000 ($32,500 after tax). Cheaper EVs are arriving into the marketplace this year at around €20,000 ($21,500), but for the CO2 emission-inspired targets to be met, a mass market for EVs is required. The BYD Surf, on sale in China for about $10,000 where it is called the Seagull, is expected to be priced from around €15,000 ($16,200) after being Europeanized with improved safety standards and equipment. Will this segment spur a true mass market for EVs? Experts have their doubts.

The Surf will join the Dacia Spring and Leapmotor TO3 with prices starting at around €15,000. It will go on sale in Britain and across Europe in June. BYD declined to reveal whether Surfs might eventually be manufactured in Europe or offer any more details such as sales targets and equipment. Dacia is Renault’s mass-market brand and the Spring is made in China. Leapmotor of China, allied with Stellantis, has started to make vehicles in Europe. These bargain basement EVs will have an early start over Volkswagen’s contender in this category, the ID.1, not expected on dealer lots until 2027.

Europe’s CO2 rules are designed to force its citizens who want to buy a new car in 2035 to only have an all-electric option. By 2030 around 80% of new car sales will have to be electric. Britain’s zero emission rules roughly mirror the EU timetable.

The current level of EV sales in Europe suggests this goal is unobtainable. For the current year, Schmidt Automotive Research expects an EV market share of just over 20% on sales of 2.7 million in Western Europe, compared with 1.9 million in 2024.

Forecasters for Europe in 2030 include EV Volumes’ 61.6% share, and French auto consultancy Inovev’s 40%. Investment researcher Jefferies has cut more than two million sales from its 2030. Its 2030 forecast now stands at 4.7 million for a market share of 35%. In 2035 it estimates a 50% EV market share, when the EU says it must be 100%. Schmidt Automotive Research predicts 54.0% in 2030 for Western Europe.

EU member states, led by big automaking countries like Germany, Italy and Czechia have been pressurizing the EU Commission to dilute the rules. The Commission reacted by allowing the tougher CO2 emission rules for 2025 to be eased by averaging them out over two more years.

But opponents of the ICE-free 2035 target want more. They want the Commission to acknowledge that even this slightly diluted regime poses an existential threat to the European auto industry. They want “technological neutrality”. This means automakers would be allowed to use what they consider to be the best way to cut CO2 emissions without the need to eliminate combustion engines entirely. This would also mean the use of e-fuels – synthetic fuels made from renewable electricity, water, and carbon dioxide, and hybrids, plug-in hybrids, range extenders and fuel cells.

The EU should have known when it created the zero emissions target for 2035 in the last decade that its auto industry was ill-prepared, but the Chinese are ready to go. Experts say that unless the EU relents, it will destroy much of its economically vital auto manufacturing industry.

Green lobby groups like Brussels-based Transport & Environment are implacable opponents of this, and insist that the regulations are met, and that the industry can meet them.

The EPP Group in the European Parliament agrees that without relaxation of the rules the European industry is doomed. European Parliamentarian Jens Gieseke, the EPP Group’s lead negotiator on the automotive industry, said this after the EU Commission revealed its action plan for reviving the industry earlier in March, which also recommended easing the 2025 rules.

“The crisis in the automotive sector is deep, there can be no more business as usual. The automotive action plan is a first step, but we need concrete actions, not just cosmetic changes. The industry needs flexibility, clear targets, and a commitment to technological neutrality. We call for a revision of the internal combustion engine ban before the end of this year,” Gieseke said.

The EPP is the biggest political grouping in the European Parliament composed of national center-right parties such as Germany’s Christian Democrats and Spain’s Popular Party.

Henning Dransfeld, director of Strategy & Industry Solutions at Infor, said this top-down approach and the aim of 100% EV sales in 2035 from the EU is wrong and won’t work. He said current EV technology won’t provide vehicles for all sections of the population. An early selling point for EV’s – much cheaper to charge than equivalent ICE vehicles – has been ended in Germany at least as energy prices are now so high.

“Putting an end to all alternatives would end mobility for many people,” Dransfeld said. “There’s not one simple route to EVs, and other technologies might offer an alternative path. It’s maybe not sensible to say all other technologies are forbidden,” he said in a telephone interview.

Would a small, cheap vehicle like the Seagull, shortly to become the Surf, bridge the gap between the EU demands and forecasters predictions?

“Just being cheap won’t corner the market. It’s horses for courses. Some are very good but some are not.” he said.

The early demise of diesel was also a mistake. He said German and French-made diesels were very economical at high autoroute speeds, an area where EVs simply can’t compete. The speed limit on most European highways is 130 km/h (81 mph).

“In the bid for reduced global emissions of CO2, diesels should be a weapon in the armoury,” Dransfeld said.

Nikhil Kaitwade, senior research manager at Newark, Delaware-based Future Market Insights, agrees that EV sales in Europe are unlikely to reach the required around 80% market share by 2030.

The Surf is the latest and cheapest EV to hit the market. Is there room for an even cheaper, stripped-down say sub-$10,000 vehicle with around 100 miles of range, maximum 60 mph top speed, carrying 2 adults and 2 children? Would this lift volume quickly to get closer to the EU target? Kaitwade doesn’t think so.

“The European car market is skewed towards premium electric vehicles, with very few options available for mid-range and economic options. This is primarily due to consumer preference towards comfort features and launch of new vehicles to attract them towards EVs which are at par with the conventional vehicles,” Kaitwade said.

“It seems unlikely that the market will see the launch or entry of sub €10,000/$10,000 vehicles. The operating range of vehicles, safety features, battery costing, compliance requirements and duties for imported vehicles will be pressing issues to maintain profitability and win consumer confidence for such cars,” Kaitwade said.

The BYD Seagull, also known as the BYD Dolphin Mini in some markets, is BYD’s cheapest and best-selling car in China. Prices start at just under $10,000 there. BYD sold 348,683 Seagulls between January and October 2024. Currently there is no European produced competitor. Expect to see European carmakers seek alliances with Chinese companies to make sure they don’t miss out on the emerging mass market for EVs.