Greenland goes to the polls on Tuesday in what could be the most consequential election of the Arctic island’s history.
With an electorate of approximately 40,000 – of a population of 57,000 – the margins are small.
But amid aggressive interest from the US president, Donald Trump, and growing calls at home for independence from Greenland’s former colonial ruler Denmark, which retains control of security and foreign policy in the autonomous territory, the election outcome will have wide-reaching repercussions from Copenhagen to Washington DC and beyond.
Who are the key players?
There are six parties on the ballot. With 12 seats in the Inatsisartut, the Greenlandic parliament, the biggest party going into the election was Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA), which, led by prime minister Múte Egede, ran the governing coalition.
Siumut, led by Erik Jensen, is the second biggest party with 10 seats. For the last two years the two parties have been in coalition government. Before that, IA was in coalition with Naleraq, which brings us on to another of the key players.
With four seats, Naleraq is the largest opposition party going into the election. The party, led by Pele Broberg, a former government minister, has been gaining traction with its promise to hold a snap vote on independence. It is the most open of the parties to collaborating with the US.
The other players are the Democrats with three seats, Atassut with two seats, and relatively new party, Qulleq, which is mainly focused on independence.
All but one of the parties, Atassut, which wants to expand and strengthen the commonwealth with Denmark, support independence, but differ on the speed at which they believe it should be attained.
What are the big talking points?
Even with all the external drama around Trump, the biggest talking points of the election have been perennial domestic ones: economy, welfare, job creation, healthcare, education, fisheries. Independence and the relationship with Denmark and the US are also normal subjects in Greenlandic elections – but this time voters and politicians have had the additional pressure of the world watching and providing commentary.
Despite saying he “strongly supports the people of Greenland’s right to determine their own future,” Trump followed up his Greenland comments during his speech to Congress with another message on Sunday inviting Greenland to join the US, promising he was “ready to invest billions of dollars” and “make you rich”.
What does it mean for Greenland’s positioning on the global stage?
As the world order realigns to a second Trump term and as the Arctic becomes an increasing battleground between global superpowers, Greenland’s geographical positioning and wealth of raw materials are making it increasingly important. This means that Greenland’s choice of leadership, and their subsequent choice of allies, has potentially far-reaching consequences. Egede has called it a “fateful choice” for Greenland.
Naalakkersuisut, Greenland’s government, has long sought partnership in mineral extraction, but until recently has not been met by the kind of enthusiasm it was looking for. Meanwhile, tensions between Greenland and Denmark as a result of revelations over numerous colonial and post-colonial injustices, are contributing to momentum for the longstanding independence movement and the wish to speed up the process to full independence.
Since Trump’s recent advances, Greenlandic politicians say that Copenhagen has been dramatically more willing to appease Nuuk. Rasmus Leander Nielsen, head of Nasiffik, the University of Greenland’s centre for foreign and security policy, said the most likely outcome is that Greenland will try to renegotiate its relationship with Denmark within the kingdom. “Now with heightened tensions, Greenland has pretty good cards in its hands and could make the argument that they need to do something different from the status quo.”
