Arizona went red.
The pivotal swing state ended up not being so pivotal, after all — or, at least, not nearly as pivotal as it was in the 2020 election.
Though results are still being tabulated, it appears that Donald Trump will win the state he narrowly lost four years ago.
And while Democrat Ruben Gallego is likely to win the U.S. Senate seat, Republicans had strong showings further down the ballot, clinching every Arizona Corporation Commission seat and most of the jobs in Maricopa County.
What does this rightward shift mean for our nation and Arizona?
Our opinions team explains the likely impact.
Trump led a red wave nationwide
Donald Trump defied political gravity by once again winning the White House even after he lost in 2020, was twice impeached and criminally convicted.
It was probably the most remarkable comeback in American political history, as he became only the second U.S. president to win nonconsecutive White House terms.
The red wave that Republicans anticipated in 2022 but did not achieve came sweeping across America as Trump won the popular vote and Electoral College handily.
Republicans took back the U.S. Senate and are on track to narrowly hold on to the U.S. House. That now puts the GOP firmly in control of the federal government and adds to its dominance of state government, where the party controls 27 governor’s seats to Democrats’ 23.
Republicans also control 46% of state legislatures to Democrats’ 32%, with the rest under divided government, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.
— Phil Boas
Gallego is on track to make history
Democratic U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego would make history if he becomes the first Hispanic from Arizona to serve in the U.S. Senate.
That’s huge because Hispanics represent a third of Arizona’s population, a territory that once belonged to Mexico.
Gallego effectively declared victory on election night, but that was a bit premature since the vote tally has been shrinking since then.
Still, as of Friday he remained in the lead against Republican Kari Lake, one of Trump’s biggest fans.
A Gallego victory would mean Arizona once again would have two Democratic senators. U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly has been helping him to defeat Lake and replace outgoing U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, a Democrat turned independent.
His victory would be a flash of light amid so much darkness.
— Elvia Díaz
Will the U.S. House stop Trump’s agenda?
With Republicans retaking the U.S. Senate, Democrats’ only hope to keep him and his agenda in check is regaining control of the U.S. House.
That prospect looks grim. Republicans had already secured 210 seats on Friday. Either party needs 218 for full control.
Arizona’s two competitive congressional districts remained undecided as we headed into the weekend.
But Republican U.S. Reps. David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani were ahead of Democratic rivals Amish Shah and Kirsten Engel, respectively.
A trifecta — meaning control of the White House and both chambers of Congress — is dangerous because it’d give Trump almost unchecked freedom to do what he wants.
The former president seeks to consolidate federal power, for instance, which could mean dismantling a bunch of federal agencies, creating new ones and slashing federal programs by “at least $2 trillion,” according to Elon Musk, who would lead that effort.
That’s just the beginning of an aggressive agenda that includes nixing the CHIPS Act, which funds microchip production in America, including the massive TSMC plant under construction in Phoenix.
That could mean fewer jobs locally in multiple sectors, from construction to engineering.
— Elvia Díaz
Expect gridlock in Arizona House, Senate
Democrats had hoped for a widespread flip of power in the Arizona Legislature, but that’s not looking likely.
Not in the House, where Republicans appear poised to maintain or even strengthen their advantage. And in the Senate, their best-case scenario now may be a 15-15 split.
That would require an agreement on who breaks a tie — and there could be a lot of them, considering how many votes in recent years have been split down party lines.
Granted, such a split could force the two warring sides to work together if they want to get anything done.
Or it could end in gridlock — which also may be the outcome if the House and Senate remain in Republican hands, which increasingly looks like the likely outcome.
It’s doubtful that an emboldened MAGA-led Legislature will be in the mood for compromise, particularly since the few moderates who occasionally broke ranks with their party were booted in the primary.
So, legislation might barrel through, but it would almost certainly continue to meet Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs’ veto pen.
— Joanna Allhands
Arizona’s courts remain in good hands
Arizonans demonstrated remarkable good sense with their ballots, voting to protect the third branch of government — the judiciary. And not just with a majority, but overwhelming majority.
Voters chose to retain two Arizona Supreme Court justices who were up for retention by roughly 20 percentage points. Democrats had targeted Clint Bolick and Kathryn King for joining the majority ruling to uphold — even if temporarily — an 1864 blanket ban on abortion.
Anyone literate in the law would know they were doing the housekeeping demanded of the 2022 landmark Dobbs decision that overturned Roe v. Wade and pushed the question of legalized abortion to the states to decide.
Bolick and King determined that Arizona’s Civil War-era law was still valid, which is not the same as endorsing it.
Credit Justice Ann Scott Timmer who, in the minority, made that point in her dissent. On Tuesday, voters joined Timmer in defending the court system and Arizona merit selection that is a national model for selecting high-quality judges.
Had voters punished Bolick and King, our court system would have turned into a political circus every election year — a sure turn-off to future judicial talent.
Public safety played big. Election reform did not
There were more than a dozen propositions on the Arizona ballot, including a trio of initiatives that were on track to pass easily on Friday, showing public safety was a top priority across the state.
Proposition 311 will create a $250,000 death benefit for the surviving family of a first responder killed in the line of duty. It’ll be paid for with a new $20 fee on criminal convictions.
Proposition 313 will raise the penalty from a minimum of seven years to mandatory life in prison for anyone convicted of child sex trafficking.
And Proposition 314 will amount to a crackdown on illegal immigration that could restructure the state budget for the foreseeable future or set up an unending fight with the federal government.
The measure promises to empower state and local police to roam the border to arrest anyone who doesn’t cross at a legal port of entry, but a similar Texas law is pending before the U.S. Supreme Court. The outcome of that case will affect how Arizona’s new law plays out.
Opinion:Abortion rights are protected, for now
Proposition 314 also makes it a state crime for immigrants in the country illegally to apply for financial assistance programs for the poor.
And the measure creates a new penalty for selling fentanyl that results in an overdose death.
Aside from that, voters rejected proposals that could have reshaped state politics, including Proposition 140, which would have created an open primary system, promising to make the state far more moderate and less extreme.
But Proposition 133 also failed in its promise to put Arizona’s current primary system into the state constitution. So, perhaps the open primary format will come back for debate soon.
— Greg Moore
