What Will EV Market Share Reach in 2025–2030? Your Responses!

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Last Updated on: 15th March 2025, 12:08 am

We recently polled readers on how much they (you all) think pure electric vehicles (BEVs) will penetrate the market in the coming years. In the coming charts, you can see the results, as well as some brief comments on each of them.

So, this year, 49% of you think BEV market share will reach 15–19% this year. As a reminder, 14% of world auto sales were BEV sales last year, 10% were BEVs in 2023, 10% were BEVs in 2022, 6% were BEVs in 2021, and 4% were BEVs in 2020.

Aside from the 49% mentioned above, 28% of you are a bit more ambitious and think BEV sales will reach 20–24% of the market this year. Then there’s that extra 11% who are really optimistic — and the 12% who think BEV market share will stagnate or even drop.

Looking one year further along, how do things change? The majority of respondents put us over the 20% barrier, with 35% expecting we’ll reach 20–24% BEV market share next year, another 27% thinking we’ll reach 25–29% BEV market share, and almost 15% expecting 30% or more BEV share. But then there are the 24% who think we’ll still be under 20% BEV share. That’s not fun.

We’re getting more and more speculative as the years go on, so we’re probably getting more and more off track. The highlight here for me is that about 50% of respondents think we’ll be between 25% and 34% BEV market share in 2027.

Whoa! 2028 is where it gets real wild. 20% of respondents think we’ll be between 30% and 34% BEV market share, another 25% think we’ll be between 35% and 44%, and then another 25% think we’ll be at 45% BEV market share or higher — with a big spread across those upper territories.

The thing that stands out to me for 2029 and 2030 is just how spread out the projections are. There’s no strong consensus about what percentage of auto sales BEVs will be scoring. We’re all just throwing out wild guesses this far away. Your guess is as good as mine, and looking at the chart above, it’s also quite likely to be different.

Well, let’s just hope we end up with some of those more optimistic forecasts and don’t let nonsense keep the market down.