It’s finally here. The U.S. presidential election takes place Tuesday as an ultra-tight campaign season ends. The latest NBC News poll has Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump at a draw, with both candidates polling 49% of the vote. Given how close the race is, and the different policy stances from Harris and Trump, strategists at Wolfe Research and Morgan Stanley highlighted several groups of stocks that could benefit depending on which candidate wins. Under a Harris victory, Morgan Stanley sees retailers and clean energy stocks outperforming as the threat of higher tariffs lifts. Investors can keep track of these sectors through two ETFs: the SPDR S & P Retail ETF (XRT) and the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) . XRT has risen more than 5% year to date. TAN has struggled, losing 23% in 2024. Under a second Trump presidency, Wolfe highlighted financials, cryptocurrency plays and traditional energy producers as potential winners given a likely wave of deregulation that would follow. ETFs tracking financials and the fossil fuel producers include the Financials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) . XLF has climbed 23% this year, slightly outperforming the S & P 500 . XLE has lagged, however, rising just 6.8% in 2024. XLF XLE YTD mountain XLF and XLE year to date These funds could also see sharp moves as exit polls and election results are reported, if they show one candidate pulling ahead. To be sure, while these ETFs can serve as a gauge of what traders are thinking, the stock market has been wrong before in pricing in one election winner over another. Elsewhere Tuesday morning on Wall Street, Bernstein upgraded eBay to outperform from market perform. “While growth rates at EBAY aren’t heroic, we believe proving to the Street that it is a ‘steady grower’ and not a ‘melting ice cube’ offers room for upside [to] the stock,” Bernstein wrote in a note on Tuesday. “The turnaround is taking shape, and the post-Q3 sell off presents an opportunity.”
Watch bank, energy and retail stocks for Trump/Harris election clues
