Shigeru Ishiba, Japan’s prime minister and president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg
Hearing that Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s approval rating fell below 28%, it’s hard not to wonder how it could possibly be that high.
The latest reason for Ishiba’s woes is a scandal over gift vouchers to his fellow Liberal Democratic Party members. But the real problem is an economy that Ishiba has neglected since taking power on October 1, one just made worse by U.S. President Donald Trump.
News Wednesday that Trump is slapping 25% tariffs on imports of foreign autos and car parts marks an escalation of a coming trade war that Ishiba’s party had hoped to avoid.
Yet it’s one Ishiba and the LDP should’ve seen coming.
Back in early February, Ishiba had his first sitdown with Trump, a meeting of supreme significance to Japan’s 125 million people. There, Ishiba claimed to have forged a solid relationship with Trump. The subtext is that Ishiba might be about to shield Japan from Trump’s tariffs, including on autos.
Not so much, as Japanese markets brace for the Trumpian headwinds to come. Team Ishiba hasn’t been paying attention if it didn’t see this indignity coming.
Part of the problem here is how Tokyo learned the wrong lessons from the 2017-2021 Trump 1.0 era. Then, it was Ishiba’s party mate Shinzo Abe grappling with how to handle Trump.
To many, Abe did so skillfully. This, however, is more myth than fact. For all Abe’s groveling, Japan failed to secure a waiver in Trump’s taxes on steel, aluminum and other goods. Despite Abe’s pleadings, Trump pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a key part of Tokyo’s plan to contain China.
Trump World even humiliated Abe by letting it be known that Abe had nominated the U.S. leader for a Nobel Peace Prize. This was despite Trump cozying up to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in ways that jeopardized Japan’s national security.
This idea that Abe was some sort of “Trump whisperer” set Ishiba up for failure. Since February 7, Trump effectively lumped Japan together with China as Asian economies manipulating exchange rates. Trump also blew up Tokyo’s spin that Ishiba came away with something of a win on Nippon Steel’s designs on U.S. Steel.
Now, Japan is realizing the futility of doing business with Trump 2.0. Officials in Tokyo like to call Trump a transactional leader. Trump doesn’t negotiate, he extorts. Give him an inch, he’ll be back in a month demanding a few kilometers from Tokyo.
The Trumpian storm to come greatly complicates Ishiba’s chances of avoiding being included in Tokyo’s dreaded 12-month club. Though Abe lasted nearly eight years in power, most Japanese leaders get just one holding the reins. There’s little reason to think Ishiba will make it to a 13th month.
The latest Kyodo News poll shows the approval rating for Ishiba’s Cabinet is 27.6%, a 12 percentage-point drop from February. Since then, voters realized Ishiba’s reputation as a scandal-free politician is bunk. And that hopes he might limit collateral damage from Trump’s trade war have been dashed.
Ishiba might be faring better if he’d put some notable reform wins on the scoreboard. Like his three immediate predecessors — including Abe — Ishiba pledged to reduce bureaucracy, modernize labor markets, rekindle innovation, increase productivity and empower women but had negligible success raising Japan’s competitive game.
That’s coming back to haunt the LDP as July national elections approach. It’s also haunting the Bank of Japan, which has been trying to normalize interest rate policy. Since July 2024, Governor Kazuo Ueda has come the closest to any peer since 2007 to get short-term rates above 0.5%.
Now, Trump’s trade war is forcing Team Ueda to hit the pause button on tightening moves. One worry is that Trump may go ahead with his long-time temptation to weaken the dollar. If the BOJ is hiking rates when Team Trump acts, the yen could skyrocket in unpredictable ways that push Japan into a recession.
That, coming just as China is exporting deflation and Trump is shanking Japan with taxes on autos, isn’t in the best interest of the global economy. Or Ishiba’s chances of avoiding short-timer infamy in the annals of Tokyo politics.
