Another day, another record on Wall Street. The S&P 500 closed higher for the fourth straight session, once again setting an all-time high. Strong momentum on the trade front and solid earnings from Alphabet helped fuel the rally, even as the broader economic backdrop remains uncertain. Investors, however, continue to find reasons to stay engaged. In Europe, the tone was more mixed. Indexes ended the day in varied territory, with several companies seeing their earnings results come under pressure.
Yesterday was one of the busiest sessions of the earnings season, and despite mixed closes, the U.S. market continued to show remarkable resilience. The S&P 500 hit another record high, driven in part by strength in the Magnificent Seven following Alphabet’s strong results. This milestone came even as some individual names struggled: Tesla fell 8.4% after results highlighted the scale of its challenges, while Southwest Airlines (-10.2%) and American Airlines (-9.4%) also weighed on sentiment. Yet, the broader market outlook remained upbeat.
In Europe, the tone was more contrasted. BT (+10.4%) and Deutsche Bank (+9.1%) were standout gainers, but the session was harsh on Moncler (-5.8%), Dassault Systèmes (-8.4%), and especially STMicroelectronics, which plunged 16.6%. The European Central Bank’s meeting was largely uneventful, as policymakers kept rates steady and maintained a cautious, meeting-by-meeting approach. For Christine Lagarde, it remains difficult to commit to a clearer path while trade negotiations between the EU and the U.S. are unresolved.
Looking back, the broader narrative is fascinating: the headlines change, but the trend has remained upward. U.S. indexes started 2025 at record levels on hopes that tariffs would be limited or manageable. Then came the first sectoral tariffs – on autos, steel, and aluminum – followed by rising tensions with China, Canada, and Mexico. Markets corrected by about 10% from mid-February to early April, as uncertainty dominated.
When sweeping reciprocal tariffs hit, the sense of certainty proved even worse than uncertainty itself, and stocks fell for two weeks – only to rebound within a month as President Trump pushed back deadlines and signaled flexibility. By late June, markets had reclaimed their highs on the logic of the “TACO trade”—the assumption that Trump ultimately won’t go all the way.
Now, investors seem relieved by recent trade deals. They remove a layer of uncertainty, offer scope for future agreements, and, put simply, make 15% tariffs look far better than 25% or 30%. Still, 15% is high and will have economic repercussions. What’s striking is how quickly the narrative shifted: what seemed unacceptable weeks ago is now embraced as a compromise. According to recent reports, Japan has agreed to 15%, and a similar deal could soon be reached with the EU.
As for today, things should be calmer. Investors will digest fresh results from LVMH, which fell short of expectations last night, and Intel, which announced 15,000 job cuts as part of its restructuring plan. In Europe, Volkswagen and Eni reported this morning.
In Asia-Pacific, it is time for profit-taking after a positive week. The Chinese index, the TOPIX and the Nifty50 are down slightly. Only the Kospi, which has remained on the sidelines of the recent rally, is in positive territory (+0.2%). European leading indicators are in the red.
Today’s economic highlights
The IFO index in Germany and durable goods orders in the US. See the full agenda here.
- USD/GBP: 0.7440 GBP
- Gold: $3,338
- Brent: $69.39
- 10-year US: 4.39%
- Bitcoin: $116,352
In corporate news:
- Alphabet – Italian energy storage company Energy Dome announced a partnership with Google on Friday to supply carbon-free energy to the grids powering the tech giant’s operations.
- Apple – The Dutch competition authority said Friday it is delaying its decision regarding Apple’s fees charged to dating app providers, pending the outcome of ongoing discussions between Apple and the European Commission on a similar issue.
- Boeing – A U.S. judge postponed the hearing on the request by the Department of Justice and Boeing to approve a deal that would allow the planemaker to avoid prosecution over two fatal 737 MAX crashes. In addition, the head of the Federal Aviation Administration said Thursday that last month’s deadly crash of an Air India Boeing 787 does not appear to have been caused by a mechanical issue or an uncommanded movement of the fuel control unit or switches.
- Centene – The company reported an unexpected quarterly loss on Friday, partly due to higher medical costs related to its insurance plans. Shares were down nearly 13% in premarket trading.
- Chevron – The United States is preparing to grant new authorizations to key partners of Venezuela’s state-owned PDVSA, starting with Chevron, allowing them to operate under certain restrictions and trade oil despite sanctions, five sources said Thursday.
- Deckers Outdoor – Shares jumped 11% in premarket trading after strong demand for its sneakers and boots in international markets helped the parent company of Hoka beat first-quarter revenue and earnings estimates.
- Digital Realty Trust – The company raised its full-year revenue and operating funds forecasts on Thursday, expecting increased demand for data center services as businesses accelerate digital transformation efforts.
- Gilead Sciences – The European Medicines Agency has recommended approval of lenacapavir, a twice-yearly injectable treatment, for the prevention of HIV infection in adults and adolescents, the drugmaker announced Friday.
- HCA Healthcare – The hospital operator raised its 2025 profit forecast on Friday, citing strong demand for medical procedures that should offset the impact of potential tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
- Intel – Shares fell 5% in premarket trading after the chipmaker reported larger-than-expected quarterly losses and warned it may exit the foundry business unless it secures external clients. The company also said it will end the year with a workforce more than 20% smaller than in 2024. New CEO Lip-Bu Tan outlined a cost-cutting plan to streamline operations and eliminate “blank checks.”
- Meta Platforms – Meta will stop running political, electoral, and social issue ads on its platform in the European Union starting in early October due to legal uncertainties around EU political advertising rules, the social media company said Friday.
- Mohawk Industries – The company beat Wall Street’s second-quarter earnings and revenue estimates on Thursday, as higher prices for its ceramic products offset increased raw material costs.
- Paramount Global – The $8.4 billion merger between Paramount Global and Skydance Media was approved by U.S. regulators on Thursday, paving the way for a sale that has sparked a press freedom controversy amid Donald Trump’s presidency.
- Phillips 66 – The company beat Wall Street’s second-quarter profit estimates on Friday, benefiting from higher refining margins and lower maintenance expenses.
- Pinnacle Financial Partners and Synovus Financial– The two companies agreed to merge in an all-stock deal valued at $8.6 billion, creating one of the largest regional banks in the southeastern United States with more than $115 billion in combined assets.
- Sarepta Therapeutics – The European Medicines Agency has not recommended approval of Sarepta’s gene therapy Elevidys for a rare form of muscular dystrophy, it said Friday.
- Tesla – Tesla outperformed Chinese rivals including BYD, Xiaomi, and Huawei in a test of highway driver-assistance technologies in China, according to results published by Bytedance’s auto division, Dcar. The company is also preparing to launch its robotaxi service in San Francisco as early as this weekend, Business Insider reported Friday, citing an internal staff memo.
- Weyerhaeuser – The company reported a 50% drop in second-quarter earnings on Thursday, hit by continued weakness in wood product prices and slowing demand in key markets.
Analyst Recommendations:
- Ameriprise Financial : William Blair downgrades to market perform from outperform.
- Comcast : Rosenblatt Securities maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target raised from 36 to USD 37.
- Datadog : BTIG maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 136 to USD 169.
- Deckers Outdoor : Williams Trading maintains its buy recommendation with a price target raised from USD 129 to USD 150.
- Dupont De Nemours : Wolfe Research maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 82 to USD 87.
- Edwards Lifesciences : Goldman Sachs maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 89 to USD 101.
- Entegris : Wolfe Research maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 94 to USD 110.
- Eqt : Capital One Securities maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 53 to USD 55.
- Gilead Sciences : Needham upgrades to buy from hold with a target price of USD 133.
- Globe Life : Keefe Bruyette & Woods maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 145 to USD 155.
- Honeywell International : Morgan Stanley maintains its market weight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 225 to USD 245.
- Hubspot : Citigroup maintains its buy recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 759 to USD 700.
- Intel : Roth Capital Partners maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target raised from 20 to USD 22.
- L3Harris Technologies : Susquehanna maintains a positive recommendation with a target price raised from 300 to USD 320.
- Lkq : JP Morgan maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from 49 to USD 40.
- Ovintiv : Siebert Williams Shank maintains its buy recommendation with a price target raised from USD 58 to USD 60.
- Southwest Airlines : Evercore ISI maintains its in-line recommendation and reduces the target price from 40 to USD 34.
- Synopsys : Rosenblatt Securities maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from 625 to USD 650.
- Synovus Financial : Janney Montgomery Scott maintains its buy recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 64.50 to USD 62.
- Thermo Fisher Scientific : ARC Independent Research maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 515 to USD 540.
- Tractor Supply : Raymond James maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 57 to USD 65.
- Union Pacific : Vertical Research Partners maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 275 to USD 280.
