Historical bull market records indicate that stocks are more than likely to rally further from here, according to Carson Group. Some other investors wonder if this bull has the momentum to keep going. The current bull market turns two years old this week (S & P 500 bottomed on October 12, 2022). However, it’s not been an easy birthday — mounting tensions in the Middle East and fears around rising yields are weighing on stocks so far in October. The benchmark is in the red for the month, despite a nice gain on Tuesday . But if history is any indication, trepidation that the current rally could turn into a full blown bear market might be unwarranted. Data from Carson Group analyzing S & P 500 data showed that the existing bull market is still just the second youngest of the 12 since 1950. “Although many might think this bull market has gone too far and is getting old, that isn’t the case at all. If you look back at history, bull markets last more than five years on average, making this one at two years actually young,” said Ryan Detrick, the chief market strategist at Carson Group. Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab, agreed with Detrick’s assessment and added that strong revenue growth — on top of earnings growth — is the upwards driver at the moment. However, Gordon noted that on average, bull markets have lasted longer after following a recession, which this current one did not. “If you’re just using that as your guide, then history would be consistent with the current rally being a little bit more short lived,” he said to CNBC. Other investors are even less optimistic, especially since this year is an election year and it still seems to be a coin toss as to which candidate could win the U.S. presidency. Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, believes that the bull market could have legs for another three to six months, maximum. “Whoever takes office is going to face an immense problem with the total debt of the country, and neither candidate has a solution to it,” he told CNBC in an interview. “My expectation is that the bond market is essentially tolerant of this situation until election time, but once the new president takes office, you’re going to have the bonds again questioning whether the deficit is sustainable. I see the 10- and 30 year-yields rising significantly, and that’s going to be the headwind for equities.”
The bull market turns two soon. History shows it should keep going, but some investors are wary
