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As Europe scrambles to beef up its defences and assemble a security force for a postwar Ukraine, Turkey — with Nato’s second-largest standing army and a booming defence industry — has been seen as a vital partner. Investors, meanwhile, had begun to put their faith in Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s apparent conversion to orthodox economic policies after his 2023 presidential victory. Wednesday’s alarming police detention of Ekrem İmamoğlu, the popular mayor of Istanbul and Erdoğan’s main political rival, casts a shadow over those hopes — and over the future of democracy and the rule of law in Turkey.
İmamoğlu is seen as the most serious challenger to Erdoğan’s two decades-plus grip on power. The 54-year-old former businessman was convincingly re-elected as mayor in Erdoğan’s former stronghold of Istanbul last year, amid the worst defeat for the president’s Justice and Development party (AKP) in local elections for 20 years. Along the way he has been harassed by the authorities and faces an array of dubious criminal probes. But with İmamoğlu’s detention as part of an investigation into alleged terrorism links and corruption, Erdoğan’s circle has moved into another realm.
Unless the authorities present compelling evidence, it will underscore fears that the president is taking Turkey further down the path of authoritarianism he has followed for a decade, particularly since surviving a coup attempt in 2016. İmamoğlu’s early-morning detention, with warrants issued for a further 99 people, came just days before his Republican People’s party (CHP) was expected to name him as its presidential candidate for elections due by 2028.
The mayor’s higher education degree was cancelled a day earlier by the state Istanbul University — which, unless overturned on appeal, could bar him from the presidential race. The intensifying clampdown on opposition comes alongside a campaign by Erdoğan allies to change the constitution and permit him to run for a third presidential term.
The developments threaten the economic gains achieved since Erdoğan in 2023 brought back as finance minister the market-friendly Mehmet Şimşek, who has helped to sharply reduce inflation. The Turkish lira’s fall against the dollar on Wednesday is a sign that investors fear the president’s commitment to structural reforms cannot be trusted. Many will worry that he is ultimately more concerned about his own political future than the economy.
Erdoğan’s desire for foreign investment might yet act as a restraint, if international businesses are deterred by a weakening of institutions. While vocal criticisms are unlikely from US President Donald Trump, who seems to admire strongman rulers, European leaders should make clear their disquiet about what is happening in a fellow Nato member. The EU has some leverage via Turkey’s desire to upgrade its customs union with the bloc, though Erdoğan has bargaining power, too, since Turkey hosts more than 4mn refugees who might otherwise cross into the EU.
European criticisms are, though, likely to be muted by the hopes of a sizeable Turkish contribution to reducing the continent’s security reliance on the US. Indeed such calculations, and Trump’s return to the White House, may have persuaded the Erdoğan apparatus that it could afford to target a rival.
The situation has echoes of the cold war, when Turkey was a key Nato member even though its attempts at multi-party democracy from the 1950s were frequently interrupted by military coups. Yet further democratic backsliding in this country of 85mn people would be another sorry sign of how Trump 2.0 is upending global relations — and bolstering leaders who lean towards authoritarianism.
