The Autonomy Institute think tank said that climate-induced price increases for everyday food items could push almost 1 million people into poverty.
The UK is at particular risk thanks to heatwaves and droughts.
Under a high-emission “worst-case” scenario, food prices could rise by 34%, the study found.
Just me and mother in the house, neither of us have particularly expensive tastes but I’ve just been to Tesco’s and managed to spend £99 on the weekly shop (£113 before Clubcard prices and vouchers taken off). It’s quite scary how expensive things have become now.
— Pete Hind (@toonpete85) July 18, 2025
Under a “best-case” scenario, the cumulative food price inflation could still reach 25% by 2050.
Heatwaves in the UK could cost an average household between £917 and £1,247 by 2050, it added.
It comes after the UK’s leading retailers like Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury’s and Morrisons have warned over the changing landscape of the retail industry owing to the searing and scorching heatwaves the UK has experienced.
Will Stronge, the chief executive of the Autonomy Institute, said the UK could look at introducing “buffer stocks”.
“Climateflation is no longer a distant risk; it’s a present reality,” Stronge told the Guardian.
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“We need to build real economic resilience – and that means rethinking what public service provision can and should provide in the face of climate disruption: from delivery of basic essentials to publicly funded diners and a national buffer stock.”
The British Retail Consortium (BRC) said rising fruit and vegetable prices had contributed to a jump in food price inflation in June.
Helen Dickinson, the BRC chief executive, said: “Retailers have warned of higher prices for consumers since last year’s autumn budget and the huge rises to employer national insurance costs and the national living wage.
“We predicted a significant rise in food inflation by the end of this year, and this has been accelerated by geopolitical tensions and impacts of climate change.”
