The Fed yesterday cut its growth forecasts for this year and forecast higher inflation, underlining how uncertainties related to tariffs are complicating the central bank’s attempt to ease monetary policy. The United States is closed today for a holiday. Asian stock markets are in the red and European ones are also expected to open lower. The Boe is expected. At Piazza Affari: Saipem, Prysmian and Risiko
If it were not for the strong concerns about the evolution of the crisis in Middle East, today investors would devote themselves to following a series of central bank meetings which should provide forecasts on growth and inflation, after the Fed yesterday. But President Donald Trump keeps the world on tenterhooks, as he considers whether to join Israel against Iran. Bloomberg News reported that senior US officials are preparing for a possible attack to Iran in the coming days, likely over the weekend. But Trump told reporters at the White House that he prefers to make the “final decision a second too soon” because the The situation in the Middle East is unstable. Meanwhile it opens a crack even among the republicans supporters of the president, which could compromise the outcome of the midterm elections.
Markets were already tense after the Fed yesterday he lowered its growth estimates a new one is planned for this yearhigher inflation, underlining how the uncertainties linked to the duties are complicating the central bank’s attempt to ease monetary policy. The investors have learned to be patient in their response to Trump’s often unpredictable political style, although analysts warn that any sign of escalation in the Middle East could trigger a impulsive reaction in the financial markets. Today the United States is closed for holidays, Asian bags in red and those too European are expected to open lower.
A rift opens among Trump supporters
The prospect of a US attack on Iran has highlighted the divisions in the coalition of supporters who brought President Donald Trump to power, with some of his supporters urging him not to involve the country in a new war in the Middle East, reports Reuters. Some of Trump’s most prominent Republican allies, including Vice President Steve Bannon, have found themselves in the unusual position of being at odds with a president. Bannon, one of the coalition’s most influential “America First” Trump, urged caution. “We can’t do that again,” Bannon told reporters. “We would tear the country apart. We cannot have another Iraq“The anti-interventionist segment of the Republican Party is watching with alarm as Trump quickly moves from seeking a peaceful diplomatic settlement with Iran to the possibility of the United States supporting Israel’s military campaign, including the use of the 30.000-pound MOP super bomb.
Trump’s decision to enter the conflict could impact his campaign to promote good relations in the Gulf and could divert attention from his efforts to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine and reach tariff deals with countries around the world. The MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) coalition supported Trump in the 2016 and 2024 elections and remains critical to him, even though the U.S. Constitution bars him from seeking a third term. Upending this base could erode Trump’s popularity and affect Republicans’ ability to maintain control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections.
Trump said yesterday that some of his supporters “are a little unhappy right now,” but that others agree with him that Iran cannot become a nuclear power. “I’m not going to fight. But if it’s a choice between fighting or having a nuclear weapon, you have to do what you have to do,” Trump said.
La CNN says Donald Trump wants to avoid involving the United States in a wider war in the Middle East, so he is looking for a way for the US to attack its targets in Iran without getting involved in a conflict. In the meantime, they are the attacks continued. Alarm sirens are sounding across much of Israel as Iran launches ballistic missiles. Loud booms are heard in central Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, and a missile has hit Soroka Hospital in Beer Sheva
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has rejected Trump’s call for unconditional surrender. Iran denies it wants to develop nuclear weapons and says its program is for peaceful purposes only. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said last week that Tehran has violated its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years.
I Foreign Ministers of Germany, France and Great Britain they intend to keep Friday in Geneva nuclear talks with Iranian counterparts to urge Iran to return to the negotiating table, he told Reuters a German diplomatic source.
Wall Street cancels the increase at the close after Powell’s words
The S&P 500 Index closed nearly flat yesterday, erasing earlier gains after the Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell he stated that inflation of the prices of goods should increase during the summer, when Trump’s tariffs hit consumers.
In a unanimous decision by the board, the Federal Reserve confirmed interest rates in the range of 4,25%-4,50%, as expected. In the statement, policy makers confirmed the Expectations for two cuts this year, but a growing minority did not expect any rate cuts at all. They also slightly slowed their expected pace to just a quarter-percentage point in 2026 and 2027. Powell essentially said that if there were no tariffs, he would cut rates now.
The central bank has Cuts US Growth Estimates in 2025 at +1,4%, inflation is expected to be 3% at the end of the year, higher than previously indicated. The core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices, is forecast at 3,1%, from 2,7% three months ago. The unemployment forecast has undergone a slight revision, to 4,5%, which is 0,1 percentage point higher than in March and 0,3 percentage point above the current level. Overall, the economy has been growing at a “solid pace”, with “low” unemployment and “slightly elevated” inflation, the monetary policy committee said. Uncertainty about the economic outlook has decreased but is still high.
Stocks were moderately higher ahead of Powell’s comments. As he spoke, U.S. Treasury yields also recovered much of their earlier decline. Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0,10% to 42.171,66, theS & P 500 lost 0,03% to 5.980,87 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0,13% to 19.546,27.
Stablecoin issuer shares jump 33,8%, worth noting Circle Internet after the U.S. Senate passed a bill to create a regulatory framework for tokens cryptocurrency projects pegged to the dollar, known as stablecoins.
The Central Bank of the Brazil raised the benchmark Selic interest rate by 0,25 percentage points to 15 percent per annum, the highest level since June 2006, when it stood at 15,25 percent. This is the seventh consecutive increase since September last year.
Asian stocks fall, Japan to cut super-long issuance
The Tokyo Stock Exchange is down this morning with the Nikkei index at -0,8%. The Yen is little changed. The 1,42-year Japanese government bond strengthens slightly, at XNUMX%. The auction of five-year government bonds has seen the strongest demand in almost two years, thanks to the decline in expectations of a rate hike by the central bank. The auction comes a day before the Finance Ministry will meet with the main operators of Japanese sovereign debt to discuss the market outlook, possibly also to adjust the issuance program. The Japanese government plans to cut super-long bond sales by about 10% than originally planned in a review of the bond program for the current fiscal year, Reuters reports, citing a draft document it has seen.
Stock markets in China are also falling. The Hang Seng Index Hong Kong is at -2%. CSI 300 of the price lists of Shanghai and Shenzhen is at -0,8%, Taiex of Taipei -1,4%. In the sector ofChinese artificial intelligence, MiniMax is considering an initial public offering in Hong Kong, it reports Bloomberg. The starting valuation could be around three billion dollars. The stock market launch could be as early as this year.
La Thailand faces renewed political uncertainty after Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s second-largest party left the ruling coalition. Taiwan’s central bank is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive quarter, while the Philippines is likely to cut it.
The prices of Petroleum are rising again (futures on Wti +0,40% to 73,80 dollars per barrel and on Brent +0,31% to 76,94 dollars per barrel), the dollar strengthens slightly against the euro, which is worth 1,1462 (-0,09%), and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury rises to 4,39%
European stocks seen opening lower. Boe awaited. At Piazza Affari: Saipem and Prysmian
European stocks are seen opening lower on the basis of the September Euro Stoxx 50 Futures contract quoted at -0,6%.
Later today central banks of Switzerland, Norway, Türkiye and the United Kingdom will issue their rate decisions. Most likely the Bank of England will highlight the consequences of the recent surge in crude oil prices when it announces its verdict on rates later today, despite signs that price pressures were easing as expected last month.
Saipem, a services and solutions company for the energy and infrastructure sector, has been awarded a FEED (Front End Engineering Design) contract by Sonatrach, relating to the Phosphate Integrated project, for the production of fertilizers in Algeria.
Monte Paschi Bank. In recent months, the Milan Public Prosecutor’s Office has interviewed UniCredit (UCG.MI) CEO Andrea Orcel and a Mediobanca executive as persons informed of the facts in the context of the investigation into the placement by the Ministry of Finance of a stake in MPS in November. This was reported by a source familiar with the dossier.
Prysmian. CEO Massimo Battaini said in an interview that reshoring, the growth of digital connectivity for data centers and the need to upgrade energy networks are the three key themes for the business. Prysmian will invest $500 million to increase medium voltage capacity in the United States.
UniCredit. The European Antitrust Authority is expected to authorize UniCredit’s takeover bid for Banco Bpm today with some conditions, such as the sale of branches, but will not decide on the requirements dictated by the Italian government, some newspapers write. MF quotes the response of the spokesperson of the EU Commission Arianna Podestà: “The decisions regarding the use of the golden power by the Italian government to set conditions for UniCredit in the offer on Banco Bpm will not be taken by the European Union”
Ifis Bank. The board of Illimity, which is currently undergoing a takeover bid by Banca Ifis, is said to be studying a new clean-up action in its assets, with further write-downs after those contained in the latest balance sheet, writes M.F. The maneuver could determine a profit warning that could reach up to thirty million. It has not yet been decided whether to announce the accounting intervention immediately or include it in the half-yearly report that will be presented on August 6, therefore after the takeover bid has already concluded, the newspaper continues, adding that the bank has not responded to a request for comment regarding the indiscretion.
Bialetti. Consob has communicated the suspension of the investigation terms – for a period not exceeding 15 calendar days from today – in order to acquire some additional information.
