An exchange-traded fund that is considered a representative gauge of the wider economy is breaking down, hinting U.S. equities could face still more pain. Investors are uneasy ahead of President Donald Trump’s long-awaited April 2 unveiling of broad tariffs on major trading partners. Monday’s sell-off brought the S & P 500 back into a correction — down 10% from its February record — adding to losses from Friday’s sharp decline, fueled by a growing conviction that economic growth is set to slow. Now, an equal-weighted ETF tracking the broader market is displaying a “concerning setup” after closing below a key level, according to Wolfe Research macro strategist Rob Ginsberg. The Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF , or RSP, ended at $171.80 on Friday, signaling what Ginsberg believes could be further downside ahead. The RSP gives equal weight to each stock in the S & P 500, regardless of a company’s size. In practice, that means a company the size of Apple , with a $3.3 trillion market value, is given the same weight in the fund as, say, Bank of America , which has a value of $325 billion. “So much for that? It was a disappointing back half of the week to say the least,” Ginsberg wrote to clients. “After failing to eclipse it’s 200-day moving average, the S & P aggressively shot lower in what can only be described as a textbook failed back-test. This is a classic occurrence within downtrends and implies the sellers remain in charge.” “The latest rejection at $175 confirms this well-defined top that has formed,” he continued. “A break of $170 puts $160 into play and would translate to some serious pain in equities.” What’s notable to Ginsberg is that the RSP has still outperformed the market cap-weighted SPDR S & P 500 (SPY) ETF this year, supporting his recommendation to limit exposure in the ” Magnificent Seven ” group of mega-cap technology stocks, which have plummeted year to date. The RSP fund is down 1.9% this year, the SPY has dropped roughly 5.9% and the CNBC Magnificent 7 Index is almost 17% lower. “We expected the likes of Tech and Discretionary to see strong rebounds on a broader market bounce,” Ginsberg said. “With hopes of that rally looking ever less likely following Friday’s action though, it might be prudent to stick with the Defensive playbook.” Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
Stock market faces ‘serious pain’ ahead if this index breaks down
