Starmer says Britain must be ready for war

By Oliver Wright

On Saturday the defence secretary John Healey could not have been clearer. “In the next parliament this country will spend three per cent of our GDP on defence,” he told The Times.

Yet this morning, Sir Keir Starmer was a good deal less categorical. The prime minister said it remained his “ambition” to hit 3 per cent during the next parliament but he would not give a “precise date until I can be sure precisely where the money is coming from”.

So what is going on?

In government the view is that there is no alternative to raising defence spending to 3 per cent by 2034 — if not by more.

However, Starmer and Rachel Reeves are reluctant to tie themselves in public to what they describe as an “arbitrary” date, not least because they have no idea how they’ll pay for it. They also don’t want to tie their hands now when they don’t know what the global security situation will look like in the early 2030s.

So we are left (officially) with an “aspiration” to hit three per cent rather than a specific pledge. But the pressure to make that pledge is not going to go away.

Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative Party leader, has dismissed the Starmer government’s strategic defence review, saying it wasn’t properly funded.

In a post on X, she said: “Labour can’t even hold a defence policy together for 48 hours — how can they be trusted to defend Britain?”

She added that the UK was in the “most dangerous era in a generation” and she took aim at the recently signed Chagos deal, where the UK handed over sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, retaining control of a UK-US military base on Diego Garcia.

The Conservative leader said Labour found “billions for the Chagos surrender — but can’t commit to properly funding our armed forces … Scrap Chagos. Fund defence.”

By Larisa Brown

The defence review is at risk of being unaffordable after Sir Keir Starmer clarified spending 3 per cent of national income on defence in the next parliament was still an “ambition”.

John Healey, the defence secretary, told The Times on Thursday there was “no doubt” Labour would reach the pledge by 2034. “In the next parliament this country will spend 3 per cent of our GDP on defence,” he said.

However he backtracked on the remarks on Sunday, with Whitehall sources saying the policy had not changed. The external reviewers conducted the review on the basis that the 3 per cent target is a certainty. Projects that have been given the go-ahead are only affordable with the spending boost, it is understood.

• A £15 billion investment in nuclear warheads
• Plans to create a hybrid Royal Navy, blending drones with warship, submarines and aircraft
• 12 attack submarines, developed under the Aukus partnership with the US and Australia
• Better housing and equipment for members of the armed forces

Sir Keir Starmer had earlier thanked the authors of the strategic defence review, and said: “What you’ve delivered is a blueprint to make Britain safer and stronger. A battle-ready, armour-clad nation with the strongest alliances, and the most advanced capabilities, equipped for the decades to come.”

The prime minister with John Healey at the BAE Systems’ facility in Glasgow

ANDY BUCHANAN/GETTY IMAGES

Sir Keir Starmer said increased defence spending would not come at the cost of health, education or welfare spending.

He said the war in Ukraine had shown the impact of a European conflict on the UK’s economy. “There is no argument, avoiding talking about conflict will hurt the economy,” he told reporters at a shipyard in Glasgow, and added: “The first duty of the prime minister is to keep your country safe.”

He said the strategic defence review would also deliver a jobs boost for both Scotland (25,000 jobs) and the UK (400,000 jobs).

Sir Keir Starmer said he was “100 per cent confident” the UK’s defence spending would hit 3 per cent of GDP in the next parliament.

While Nato has called for member states to increase defence spending to 3.5 per cent by 2032, the prime minister said it was a significant step to increase the UK’s funding to 2.5 per cent by 2027-28, then 3 per cent in the next parliamentary term.

“I’m 100 per cent confident this can be delivered,” he said. “We are committed to spending what we need to deliver this review. I am not putting arbitrary dates on that.”

Sir Keir Starmer said the UK must “learn the lessons from Ukraine” to build an army ten times more lethal by 2035.

The prime minister said the rise of drone warfare and innovation — which Ukraine had mastered in its three-year war with Russia — must become part of an overhaul of the UK’s defence force.

“We need innovation at wartime pace,” he said. He said the government would build six new munition factories in the UK, creating thousands of jobs and new submarines as part of the Aukus defence pact.

More submarines will be built

JAMES CLARKE/MINISTRY OF DEFENCE/PA

Sir Keir Starmer said the defence strategic review will “mobilise the nation in a common cause” as the UK moves to “warfighting readiness”.

At a shipyard in Scotland, the prime minister said the global environment had changed and was the most precarious in 70 years.

He said: “Recognising in defence of the realm … nothing works unless we all work together. Every citizen has a role to play because we have to recognise the threat has changed. The threat is more dangerous than any time since World War Two.”

Starmer said the UK now had to end the “hollowing-out” of the defence force. “We will build a fighting force that is integrated and more lethal than ever,” he said.

Mike Martin, a Lib Dem MP who is on the defence select committee, said: “The SDR is all jam tomorrow. Three per cent by 2034 is totally inadequate. The PM talks of a grave current threat to our security — in which case he should convene crossparty talks on how to get to 3 per cent ASAP — something the Lib Dems have been calling for for ages.

“The SDR is a nice vision piece. But without any money it will remain just that, and the UK will be less safe as a result”

Sir Keir Starmer, who is on a visit to Scotland, will deliver a short speech on the defence strategic review this morning, before a press conference.

At about 3.30pm, John Healey, will make a statement to MPs in the House of Commons about the strategic defence review.

Ben Wallace, the former defence secretary, told The Times: “Most defence reviews start out funded and as time passes cost pressures hollow them out towards the end. Without 3 per cent by (20)30 this review is hollow before it has begun.”

It is understood that the previous government was warned by the Treasury that if the Ministry of Defence was going to finance 12 submarines as part of Aukus, plus the Trident nuclear deterrence and the GCAP, Tempest fighter jet programme then it would need to “spend more than 3 per cent and there would be nothing left over”.

Britain faces a “new era of threat” including the “immediate and pressing” danger of Russia, the long-awaited strategic defence review will warn on Monday.

The report, which will be published after nearly a year, consists of 48,000 words and is about 130 pages long. The government is expected to accept all 62 recommendations in full.

John Healey, the defence secretary, said Britain must be prepared for a military attack by Russia. The review will also focus on other countries, including China, which is not described as an enemy but as a “sophisticated and persistent challenge”.

• Read in full: The measures we already know will feature

The prime minister said he “very much” hoped he would not need to send British troops into Europe in the future to deter Russian aggression.

Asked by BBC Radio 4’s Today programme if UK armed forces could be deployed in the defence of a Nato ally, Sir Keir Starmer said: “In order to make sure that that isn’t the case, we need to prepare.”

The UK “cannot ignore the threat that Russia poses,” he added. “Russia has shown in recent weeks that it’s not serious about peace, and we have to be ready.”

Sir Keir Starmer said he was buoyed by the footage of Ukraine’s mass drone attack in Russia overnight which is reported to have destroyed 40 Russian planes.

“[It shows] Ukraine is not defeated,” he told the BBC. “It shows they are still there and fighting . That is a tribute to Ukraine.”

The prime minister said the three-year war between Ukraine and Russia had turned the Ukrainian army into one of Europe’s toughest fighting forces.

Ukrainian forces firing towards Russian troops in April

ANATOLII STEPANOV/REUTERS

Sir Keir Starmer rejected suggestions his Labour government could not commit the extra £13 billion to reach the 3 per cent defence funding figure because it was being forced to back down on other measures such as the winter fuel allowance.

The government is preparing to reverse its tough cuts to fuel subsidies for pensioners, but the prime minister said it would not come at the cost of defence and security.

He said he had fixed the 2.5 per cent defence funding figure to 2027, but the 3 per cent figure would not be tied to a particular date.

“I am not going to indulge in the fantasy of plucking dates from the air,” he told the BBC. “I take the defence and security of our country very seriously. It’s the most important task I have.”

The prime minister said he was hopeful of reaching the 3 per cent defence funding figure, but made no promises.

Sir Keir Starmer said that all Nato countries needed to “step up” to boost defence spending in the current geopolitical environment.

He said that defence spending would reach 2.5 per cent by 2027-28, but denied it was “wishful thinking” to hit 3 per cent by next parliament.

“Yes, that 3 per cent [is the target]. But I am not going to make a commitment to the exact date until we can make good on that commitment,” he told the BBC.

Sir Keir Starmer said the defence strategic review was needed because the “world has changed”, especially since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“We have to recognise the world has changed and if the world has changed we have to be ready,” he told the BBC. If you want to deter conflict, then you have to prepare for conflict.”

The prime minister played down the prospect of a future nuclear warfare, but said nuclear deterrence had been an effective tool since the end of the Second World War.

“We need to ask how Nato can preserve the peace for decades to come,” he said.

Luke Pollard, the armed forces minister, has refused to guarantee that defence spending would reach 3 per cent of GDP, saying it would only happen when “economic conditions allow”.

Before the release of the strategic defence review today, Pollard said he hoped to top the 3 per cent figure by the next parliament.

Luke Pollard

CZAREK SOKOLOWSKI/AP

“Well, we’ve set out that we are spending 2.5 per cent by April 2027 with the ambition to spend 3 per cent in the next parliament when economic conditions allow,” he told Times Radio.

“I agree with the defence secretary that thanks to the chancellor getting our economy back on track by having the highest growth in the G7 that I have no doubt, just as a defence secretary doesn’t, that with the growing threats that we’re facing that we will be spending 3 per cent in the next parliament.”

Britain will build up to a dozen nuclear-powered attack submarines, Sir Keir Starmer is expected to announce as the government unveils its strategic defence review on Monday.

The long-awaited review will set out the UK’s defence plan for the next ten years.

The boats will replace the UK’s seven Astute class submarines, which are armed with conventional weapons, and will be in operation from the late 2030s, joining the four Trident submarines that carry the nation’s at-sea nuclear deterrent.