Hope usually springs eternal for the S&P 500 this time of year. But analysts are already sounding specific warnings for next year.
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Beating The Market: How To Find Outperforming Stocks
Analysts think 10 stocks in the S&P 500, including Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Tesla (TSLA) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI), will sink 10% or more in the next 12 months, says an Investor’s Business Daily analysis of data from S&P Global Market Intelligence and MarketSurge.
That would be quite a disappointment — following such a strong year for the S&P 500. Analysts think the average S&P 500 stock will jump 9.2% in the next 12 months. And just this year, the S&P 500 is up nearly 28%.
“As with many changes in national policies, investors are adjusting their expectations, fueling short-term turbulence or Trump bumps,” said Jose Torres, Senior Economist at Interactive Brokers.
Palantir: Look Out Below
Palantir stock’s 360% gain this year is impressive. But S&P 500 analysts think there’s pain on the horizon.
Analysts think the security and defense stock will only trade for 39.57 a share in 12 months from now. That’s an implied crash of nearly 50% from the stock’s current price of 79.01.
It’s a gutsy bearish call, though. The stock sports a perfect 99 RS Rating and perfect 99 Composite Rating. And the company’s earnings are expected to jump 52% in 2024 and 23% in 2025.
Unwinding Tesla Trump Bump
Another S&P 500 stock expected to suffer next year also gained big-time from the postelection rally: Tesla.
Analysts think the electric vehicle maker’s shares will drop 37% in the next 12 months to 397.88. This, too, takes nerve to pronounce. CEO Elon Musk is in cahoots with President-elect Donald Trump and presumably will have a say in electric car tariffs.
Thanks to the Trump bump, shares of Tesla are up 60% this year to a 97 RS Rating. Profit is seen falling 22% this year, but rising 39% in 2025.
Analysts are also predicting more pain for Super Micro Computer, a maker of high-performance systems used in AI. The stock, under an accounting cloud all year, is seen falling nearly 12% next year to 40.32. Shares are up 61% this year. But shares carry a low 22 RS Rating, due to recent selling.
Does this guarantee analysts’ predictions will be right? Absolutely not. But in an era where most investors are bullish, it pays to notice pockets of caution.
Analysts Picks For 2025’s Worst S&P 500 Stocks
| Company | Ticker | Implied downside (12 months) | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palantir Technologies | PLTR | -49.9% | Information Technology |
| Tesla | TSLA | -37.2% | Consumer Discretionary |
| Garmin | GRMN | -14.7% | Consumer Discretionary |
| Netflix | NFLX | -13.2% | Communication Services |
| Super Micro Computer | SMCI | -11.7% | Information Technology |
| Packaging Corporation of America | PKG | -11.0% | Materials |
| Lululemon Athletica | LULU | -10.9% | Consumer Discretionary |
| Axon Enterprise | AXON | -10.7% | Industrials |
| Southwest Airlines | LUV | -10.3% | Industrials |
| Paycom Software | PAYC | -10.0% | Industrials |
Follow Matt Krantz on X (Twitter) @mattkrantz
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