‘Sharp contrasts’: Tourism sees international ‘headwinds’, domestic travel resilience | Local News

The World Travel & Tourism Council said in May the U.S. could lose as much as $12.5 billion in international tourist spending this year (a 7% decline from $181 billion in 2024 to below $169 billion projected this year).

Oxford Economics also has a “negative outlook for inbound travel to the U.S.” citing “sentiment headwinds” with international views toward Trump including his tariffs, geopolitical posturing, hardline immigration moves and cuts to U.S. foreign aid.

Trump has also talked about the U.S. making Canada the 51st U.S. state, taking over Greenland and stepping back from European alliances. His hardline immigration efforts include the arrests, detentions and deportation of undocumented migrants, including many from Latin America.

Trump issued an executive order July 3 raising entrance fees for foreign tourists and groups visiting national parks.

The economics group expects an 8.7% drop in international trips to the U.S. with significant pullbacks on visits to the states by Canadians and Europeans.

“We forecast international visitor spending to fall by $8.5 billion (-4.7%), relative to last year,” the Oxford group said in its negative outlook report.

But Americans continue to travel in force domestically and internationally this year, according to tourism executives and business owners on the frontlines of travel trends.

The industry paints a less dire, more watchful picture of the economy and travel trends.

“We’ve seen a shift,” said Stacy Ritter, president and CEO of Visit Lauderdale, which promotes tourism to the Fort Lauderdale area of South Florida.

“International travel is relatively stable overall, but we have seen a noticeable dip in visitation from Canada. That said, the increase in domestic travel has more than made up for it,” Ritter said.

That has made for “strong and steady” tourism flows so far this year, she said.

“What’s especially notable is that off-peak travel is out-performing expectations. That’s a strong indicator that people are prioritizing travel, even in uncertain economic times,” Ritter said.

But she is also seeing “shorter booking windows” for travel plans. Ritter said shorter stays can translate into less spending and succeeding tax revenue.

She said local tourism tax revenue is trending slightly down. That suggests visitors are coming, but they may be choosing shorter stays or being more mindful with their spending.

Jorge Salas-Guevara Succar, founder and president of New Paths Expeditions, which leads tours and operates small cruises across the globe, is also seeing a shift among international bookings. “Over-tourism” has become a sore point in Europe, with large crowds stressing popular destinations such as Paris and Barcelona. 

“Some of our most seasoned travelers are now actively pivoting toward destinations that offer smoother logistics and fewer crowds, especially Latin America,” Succar said. “We’ve had a noticeable number of travelers switch their European reservations to Latin America trips mid-year, citing overcrowding, uncertainty and a desire for deeper, more authentic experiences.”

Wars in the Middle East since the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks inside Israel have also discouraged travel to that region.

Domestic travel has been carrying the tourism load, with AAA reporting a record 72.2 million Americans traveling for the July 4th holiday and more than 45 million for Memorial Day weekend.

Lower gas prices are encouraging for inflation-weary households. The average price of gasoline stood at $3.14 per gallon as of July 7. That is down from more than $3.50 per gallon a year ago and down from the record $5-plus gas prices during the summer of 2022 and 40-year highs with inflation.

Mountain West states such as Montana, Wyoming, Utah and Idaho are seeing increased interest from tourists.

“We have seen a rapid rise in clients traveling to the Western U.S. especially near or abutting National Parks. Yellowstone, in particular. Incredible vistas, cultural experiences and easy access, especially for those from the Northeast. Alaska has also seen a huge uptick,” said Carolyn Addison, head of product of Black Tomato, a New York-based luxury tour operator.

Yellowstone National Park had its busiest May on record — 566,363 visitors this year. That is up 8% from a year ago and 20% from 2021, according to the National Park Service.

In May, passenger counts at Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport in Belgrade, Montana, were up 12% in May compared to two years ago.

Richie Khandelwal, president and co-founder of PriceLabs, a Chicago-based firm specializing in software for vacation rentals, sees “sharp contrasts” in short-term rental booking favoring smaller and rural areas with cheaper rates than pricey bigger cities.

He points to markets such as Ocean City, Maryland; Bend, Oregon; and Saratoga Springs, New York, as performing well.

“One key trend we’re seeing is guests booking later, perhaps waiting to see how things play out before deciding where to travel — or if they can afford to travel at all,” he said.

Addison said more travelers are seeking peace and tranquility on their vacations for personal resets “away from urban rhythms.”

“This isn’t about isolation, but intentional connection. Month-long stays are becoming increasingly common, as travelers trade rushed itineraries for unhurried exploration,” Addison said.

Succar agrees seeing more travel motivations stemming from “a desire for less screen time.”

Ritter said her Fort Lauderdale tourism group has stepped up its promotions of the local food scene.

Culinary tourism is a top travel trend this year, according to Eleanor Moody, a travel expert at HomeToGo, which operates an online vacation rentals marketplace and platform.

She said experiences such as sporting events, concerts and natural events such as eclipses and animal migrations are also on tourists’ contemporary vacation wish lists.

There are also travelers eyeing off-the-beaten-path experiences. That could help draw visitors to Mississippi’s Gulf coast as well as the Pacific Northwest, according to HomeToGo.com.

Many travelers are still cost conscious — still feeling the financial impacts of post-pandemic inflation and higher prices.

Moody said there are instances where travel to Europe can be cheaper than some popular U.S. destinations.

“With extended, cost-conscious vacations on the rise, more U.S. travelers may consider international vacations to stretch their dollars,” she said.

Other tourism groups are promoting trips closer to home.

“We’re seeing a lot more staycations and shorter vacations this year. Less people are flying internationally and are choosing to vacation here in the U.S. instead,” said Steve Schwab, CEO of Casago.com, a Scottsdale, Arizona-based vacation rentals and property management company.

Schwab said he is seeing more road trips and vacations closer to home. “All of these things seem to be pretty consistent among age groups but perhaps more dominant for Gen-Zers and millennials, and that’s likely just due to less funds at their disposal for traveling.”

The Wisconsin Dells Visitor & Convention Bureau has its tourism marketing efforts focused on Midwestern drive markets such as Chicago, Minneapolis, St. Louis and Des Moines.

The area is known for its water parks, amusement parks and summer fun.

“We are typically trying to reach the family household vacation planning decision-maker, usually ‘Mom’,” said Andy Larsen, spokesperson for the Wisconsin group.

Dodie Stephens, vice of marketing for Explore Asheville, said the North Carolina tourism group also focused its marketing to regional drive markets with an emphasis that the area is open for visitors after all the damage caused by Hurricane Helene last year.

“We’re shouting it from our beautiful Blue Ridge mountaintops — the Asheville area is open for business and eagerly welcoming visitors after Hurricane Helene impacted our region in fall of 2024,” Stephens said.

She said the western Carolina region is still getting that word out to the travel marketplace.

“We’re seeing a mixed picture of business as we continue to invite leisure travelers back. In May, hotel occupancy averaged 67%, down five points from 2024 and 10 points from 2019,” she said.

Carl Cronje, co-founder and CEO of TourAxis, an international tourism firm specializing in coach tours, said he’s not seeing Americans “step back from international travel.”

“Our South African tours are performing exceptionally well, and European tours continue to be favorites,” he said.

“Our primary focus continues to be the U.S. market, and we particularly target female travelers in their mid-50s who represent our core demographic for coach travel,” Cronje said.

Those can include group and solo vacations, a growing trend among women, he said.

He also sees travelers focus on experiences and the “memory economy.”

Jakob Wahl, CEO of the International Association of Amusement Parks and Attractions (IAAPA), said domestic tourism is performing well in the U.S., China and Brazil and that vacationers are cost conscious.

“Affordability continues to be a key consideration, particularly for families and multi-generational travel,” he said.

Wahl said if tourists are uncertain about the economy or world affairs, they may be more prone to shorter trips.

“We’ve also seen an increase in spontaneous, last-minute visits,” he said, pointing to attractions offering localized and specialized promotions and digital services focused on those visitors.