Silvia Rindone, EY-Parthenon UK&I Retail Lead, says: “Retailers are entering the golden quarter under immense pressure, with profit warnings at a two-year high and profit warnings citing weaker consumer sentiment at their highest since 2022.”
“The EY-Parthenon data shows that over half of retail warnings stem from declining confidence, and this is compounded by rising wage and tax burdens. To remain competitive, retailers must not only adapt to shifting consumer preferences but also rethink cost structures and operational agility. Innovation is no longer optional – it’s the key to resilience in a market defined by volatility.”
Beyond the retail sector, the overall landscape for UK-listed companies reveals shifting trends. One in five of the 64 profit warnings issued during Q3 2025 cited the impact of weaker consumer confidence, the highest proportion recorded for this cause since 2022, and a significant increase from just 6% during the same period last year.
The leading factor here was policy change and geopolitical uncertainty, cited in 47% of warnings. This represents the highest percentage recorded for this cause in over 25 years of EY’s analysis, up from 17% in Q3 2024. Additionally, 34% of profit warnings were linked to contract and order cancellations or delays, while 22% referenced tariff-related impacts, including weaker demand and supply chain disruptions.
Over the last 12 months, 18% of UK listed businesses have issued at least one profit warning.
Jo Robinson, EY-Parthenon Partner and UK&I Financial Restructuring Leader, says: “Companies are still clearly seeing ripples from earlier geopolitical tensions and policy shifts, and the proportion of firms to have issued a warning in the last 12 months has consistently been at a level typically associated with a period of economic shock for the past two years.”
“As the government faces difficult decisions ahead of the Autumn Budget, businesses are continuing to navigate market shifts and external threats, adapting their operations and supply chains to ongoing uncertainty and growing risks like cyberattacks”.
“While buoyant equity markets over the summer sustained a narrative of corporate resilience, resilience is not immunity. Forecasting confidence is being disrupted by near-constant change, and restructuring activity continues to rise as persistent pressures leave many companies with tighter liquidity and reduced flexibility. In this environment, firms must adopt a measured, scenario-based approach that balances both agility and strategic clarity.”
2025 RTIH INNOVATION AWARDS
UK retail was a key focus area at the 2025 RTIH Innovation Awards.
We received a record number of entries and many fantastic examples of the continued resilience and dynamism of the retail space during hugely challenging times.
For a full rundown of all of the shortlisted entries, click here.
Our 2025 hall of fame entrants were revealed during a sold out event which took place at The HAC in Central London on 16th October and consisted of a drinks reception, three course meal, and awards ceremony presided over by award winning comedian, actress and writer Tiff Stevenson.
In his welcome speech, Scott Thompson, Founder and Editor, RTIH, said: “This is the awards’ fifth year as a physical event. We started off with just 30 people at the South Place Hotel not far from here, then moved to London Bridge Hotel, then The Barbican, and last year RIBA’s HQ in the West End.”
“But I’m conscious of the fact that, to quote the legend that is Taylor Swift, You’re only as hot as your last hit, baby. So, this year we’ve moved to our biggest venue yet, and also pulled in our largest number of entries to date and broken attendance records.”
He added: “This year’s submissions have without doubt been our best yet. To quote one of the judges: The examples of innovative developments across both traditional and digital retail spaces were truly remarkable.”
Congratulations to our winners, and a big thank you to our sponsors, judging panel, the legend that is Tiff Stevenson, and all those who attended our 2025 gathering.
