The party, led by former UKIP leader Nigel Farage, won five seats at last year’s general election but picked up votes across the country in both rural seats and Labour’s industrial heartlands.
The latest poll would see the party win in Barrow, Carlisle, Penrith and the Solway and Workington and Whitehaven, according to YouGov.
If an election were held tomorrow, the central projection from YouGov’s MRP estimates that Labour would not only lose their majority, falling to 178 seats, but in doing so become second party by some distance in a hung parliament in which Reform UK would be the largest force.
Today marks 1 year since the 2024 general election. Here’s how our latest MRP projects a new election would go
Reform UK: 271 (+266)
Labour: 178 (-233)
Lib Dems: 81 (+9)
Conservatives: 46 (-75)
SNP: 38 (+29)
Greens: 7 (+3)
Plaid: 7 (+3)
Others: 3 (-2)Results link in next tweet pic.twitter.com/76YiTrW2E8
— YouGov (@YouGov) July 4, 2025
According to their data and models, Nigel Farage’s party would come out of an election with 271 seats, an ‘enormous’ improvement on their 2024 total of five, placing the party close to government.
In the 2024 general election, Reform beat the Tories into second place in Whitehaven and Workington whilst pushing them close in Penrith and the Solway and Carlisle.
Labour has had a difficult time in the polls since winning their historic election in July 2024 as they forced through some controversial legislation on cancelling winter fuel payments for pensioners and keeping the two-child benefit cap.
The party have been forced into some major U-turns since their disastrous performance in the 2025 local elections.
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Labour have now restored the winter fuel payment to the majority of pensioners and have made significant changes to their proposed welfare reform bill following a major revolt from backbenchers.
According to YouGov Labour are set to come second in every seat they won in Cumbria in 2024 to Reform UK whilst the Conservatives are projected to come third.
The Liberal Democrats are forecasted to retain their Westmorland and Lonsdale seat, according to YouGov.
