Reform UK could scoop more than 500 council seats at this week’s local elections, according to a leading expert.
Nigel Farage‘s party have consistently outperformed the Tories in recent national opinion polls and even risen above Labour in some surveys.
Luke Tryl, UK director of More In Common, said Reform would be the biggest winner of Thursday’s local elections if they performed in line with their current polling.
‘One prediction we make with confidence is their gains will be in the hundreds of seats,’ the pollster said.
He added that a ‘good night’ for the party would see Reform gain more than 500 seats, making them the largest party from among the seats being contested.
Labour are ‘likely to lose seats’ and Sir Keir Starmer‘s hopes of limiting losses to around 20 seats of fewer depends on the extent of tactical voting and fall in support for the Tories, Mr Tryl said.
The Conservatives themselves could stem their losses to less than 600 seats on a ‘good night’, but a ‘bad night’ could see them shed more than 670 seats, he added.
But the pollster warned there was a ‘deep sense of pessimism about the state of the country and the world’ among voters ahead of Thursday’s contests.
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could scoop more than 500 council seats at this week’s local elections, according to a leading expert
Labour are ‘likely to lose seats’ and Sir Keir Starmer’s hopes of limiting losses depends on the extent of tactical voting and fall in support for the Tories
More In Common research showed the electorate for this year’s local elections held a withering verdict of all the major parties
Mr Tryl revealed the electorate for this year’s local elections held a withering verdict of all the major parties, according to More In Common research.
He said: ‘In focus groups conversations conducted in recent days and weeks, the mood has ranged from resigned to apocalyptic.
‘Participants cite local signs of decline – from potholes to homelessness – as symptoms of a wider and deeper problem with Britain.
‘While some think it is too early to make a judgement about the new Labour Government, many across the country seem ready to give up on politics altogether.’
He added: ‘I don’t think I’m exaggerating to say that the groups that we did over the past week are some of the most disillusioned, disappointed, disaffected that we’ve run.
‘There was a real sense that people keep demanding change from politics and they’re not getting that change, and that they are as a result not just thinking things are bad, but starting to lose faith in the inability of the system to change things.’
Among those who are considering voting Reform, Mr Tryl suggested there is a feeling of ‘we may as well roll the dice on getting something different’.
He added: ‘This is a disillusionment election, it’s also a bit of a rolling the dice election and trying to send a signal to the powers that be election as well.’
The winter fuel allowance, disability benefits, and small boat crossings are among the issues that have been raised by voters in focus groups, he said.
Polling by More In Common also revealed how ‘none of the above’ was a clear winner when Britons were asked which of the party leaders – Sir Keir, Mr Farage and Tory leader Kemi Badenoch – would make the best PM.
Some 1,641 council seats are up for grabs on May 1, across 23 local authorities, while six mayoralities are being contested.
Thursday will also see a parliamentary by-election held in Runcorn and Helsby, prompted by the resignation of ex-Labour MP Mike Amesbury who was jailed for punching a constituent.
Mr Tryl said that Reform should win the contest if their polling figures are correct.
‘In general and given where we are with national polling we would expect that if Reform… are matching their current national voting intention that they should take the Runcorn by-election,’ he said.
