In the general election last year, Labour won 53 per cent of the vote in Runcorn & Helsby. Reform was a distant second on 18 per cent. It was Labour’s 49th safest seat. But in October, Mike Amesbury, the MP, punched a constituent in the street.
He was suspended from Labour after video emerged of the incident in Frodsham, Cheshire, which took place while Amesbury was waiting for a taxi at 2.15am. Paul Fellows was seen falling to the ground and Amesbury hit him at least five more times. Amesbury admitted assault and was handed a suspended ten-week prison sentence. In March, he announced his resignation.
In the nine months since the general election, Labour has fallen in the national polls while Reform has surged. Runcorn & Helsby is the first by-election test for Sir Keir Starmer — and Reform hopes to take the seat.
Reform hopes to shatter two-party ‘stranglehold’
It is going to be a “historic night” for Reform, says Zia Yusuf, the party’s chairman. “I think we’re going to win hundreds of council seats, we stand a really good chance of taking control of some councils and we will win at least one, perhaps even two mayoral races,” he told BBC’s Newsnight. “I think it is going to be a historic night for Reform.”
Zia Yusuf is hoping for a “historic” night
TIMES PHOTOGRAPHER JACK HILL
The Runcorn & Helsby by-election marked the beginning of Reform UK’s path to power in 2029, he claimed. “Clearly we are on a path to delivering on that mission of 350 to 400 MPs and Nigel is our prime minister in 2029.”
A Reform UK win in Runcorn & Helsby would “end the stranglehold of the two party system dating back a century”, Yusuf said.
Is this the end of the two-party system?
Professor Sir John Curtice said tonight’s results would show whether the British two party system was now on its “last legs”.
The polling expert told BBC’s Newsnight that Labour and the Conservatives had dominated politics since 1922 but had been in long-term decline since the postwar period. Then, more than 90 per cent of the electorate voted for them. Now, polls suggest only about 45 per cent would do so.
Curtice said: “What we’re looking for tonight is the evidence at the ballot boxes as to what the polls are suggesting about the challenge from Reform, the relative strength of the Greens and also the Lib Dems seemingly back in business — whether that message is correct or not.”
Davey: Lib Dems are on a winning streak
Sir Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, expects “big gains” against the Conservatives in their former Middle England heartlands.
Sir Ed Davey’s local election campaign involved a rollercoaster ride at the BIG Sheep, a theme park in Bideford, Devon
BEN BIRCHALL/PA
He said: “Last year the Liberal Democrats won a record number of MPs and became the largest third party in 100 years. Now we are on course for our seventh year of local election gains, making this our best ever winning streak.
“Voters have delivered their verdict on a Conservative Party that broke the country and a Labour government that is too timid to fix it. Every Liberal Democrat councillor elected will be a strong local champion fighting tirelessly to deliver the change that people are crying out for.”
Farage: We fought a strong campaign
Labour and the Tories are “more fearful” about the results than Reform, said Nigel Farage.
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Tories: We knew these elections would be tough
The Conservatives also dampened expectations. A spokesman said: “The Conservatives have started on the process of renewing our party under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership. But we also have always been clear that these would be tough elections for the party, defending an incredibly high watermark from 2021 when we took two-thirds of all seats.
“If the 2024 general election was replicated on today’s battleground, we would lose control of almost every single council.
“Labour won a historic supermajority last year in a large number of areas that are facing local elections tonight and it would be reasonable to expect a government with such a commanding presence in Westminster to make serious progress tonight. Anything less than this ought to raise serious questions about the direction Labour is taking this country, and about Keir Starmer’s own leadership.”
Labour limits expectations
Labour was measured as polls closed. Ellie Reeves, the party chair, said: “These elections were always going to be a challenge, being held largely in areas dominated by the Conservatives, often for decades. That’s why Labour candidates stood on a promise to bring change right across our country.
“There are promising signs that the Labour government’s Plan for Change is already starting to turn around 14 years of Tory failure. But we know people aren’t yet fully feeling the benefit and we are just as impatient for change as the rest of the country.
“However the results turn out this evening, this Labour government will go further and faster in turning our country around and giving Britain the future it deserves.”
Results to expect overnight
The first results are expected at 2am in two mayoral contests: North Tyneside and West of England. Labour are confident they will win North Tyneside, but West of England could be close between Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens.
At 3am, counting should be finished in the Runcorn & Helsby parliamentary by-election, which was triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Mike Amesbury after he was sentenced for punching a constituent. Labour won with a large majority last year, but Reform are eyeing up a fifth seat in the Commons.
At 3.30am, we should get the results for Greater Lincolnshire’s first directly elected mayor. That contest is expected to be a two-horse race between the Tories and Reform — the former MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns defected from the Tories to stand for Reform.
At 5am, the result of the Doncaster mayoral election is due. Labour’s Ros Jones is hoping for a fourth term, but Reform also has a chance.
One of the most unpredictable elections in a decade
These elections will be a litmus test for Sir Keir Starmer and Labour after nine months in government. Nigel Farage is hoping to increase Reform UK’s vote share and local Liberal Democrats are strong.
Voting in Runcorn
ANTHONY DEVLIN/GETTY IMAGES
The Tories are braced for huge losses: most of the council seats were last contested in May 2021 at the very peak of Boris Johnson’s electoral success.
• Gen up on the key battlegrounds and check all the timings in our guide to the action
The polls have closed — now counting will begin in the Runcorn & Helsby by-election and four of the six mayoral contests: Doncaster, Greater Lincolnshire, North Tyneside and West of England.
Four of the 23 local authorities holding elections will start counting: Hertfordshire, Lincolnshire, Northumberland and Staffordshire. Only one, Northumberland, is due to return all its results overnight. The other three will announce some results overnight, the rest being declared later on Friday.
