The last four seasons of Spanish football have seen a reversion to the mean in the aftermath of Atletico Madrid’s stunning La Liga triumph in 2021. Real Madrid and Barcelona have alternated as champions with the other finishing in second place for four seasons in a row. How Madrid supporters will hope that pattern continues as they look to wrestle back the domestic title from their arch rivals.
Real were expected to retain their title in 2025 after adding Kylian Mbappe off the back of a season in which they had won the league and Champions League, the prizes they covet above all others. Instead, managerial great Carlo Ancelotti, in his final season at the Bernabeu, was unable to make a cohesive whole out of the wealth of attacking talent at his disposal. Now Xabi Alonso, who enjoyed great success in Madrid as a player, looks to get the club back on top.
Alonso will be disappointed with his early days in charge after a Club World Cup semi-final 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Paris Saint-Germain, the result looking even worse once PSG were beaten 3-0 by Chelsea in Sunday’s final. Despite this, the Spanish giants are still favourites on Betfair to win La Liga under their new manager.
Perhaps it was time to change things up and Ancelotti taking the Brazil job will be a blessing in disguise after a season in which his team struggled to keep up with Barcelona. Two arrivals from the Premier League, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Dean Huijsen, can help Alonso’s side achieve the defensive stability required to go all the way. Alexander-Arnold will hope he can emulate his new manager and become a legend for Real Madrid as well as Liverpool.
Barcelona started last season with a new manager and it could scarcely have gone better, something Real will be hoping to emulate. Not only was Hansi Flick able to guide his team to reclaiming the title but they also dominated El Clásico fixtures, winning four out of four. Indeed, the 4-0 win away from home called to mind that famous 6-2 in Pep Guardiola’s first season in charge, a result that seemed to presage an era in which Barcelona would become perhaps the greatest club side in the game’s history.
Barcelona are second favourites this time around, almost certainly due to the kinds of financial restraints that Madrid need not worry about. There is plenty of strength in the team, but the question is whether they have the depth to cope with injuries and allow sufficient squad rotation as they attempt to dominate at home and in Europe. One thing in the club’s favour is the return to Camp Nou in August after two full seasons away while the ground was renovated and expanded. There is every chance it becomes more of a fortress than ever before, especially with Lamine Yamal having developed into perhaps the world’s best footballer.
Atletico Madrid have the second longest serving manager in Europe currently in the form of Diego Simeone, a man who has prevented a Spanish duopoly over the last decade or so, with two title wins, in 2014 and 2021. The odds suggest Atletico (8/1) are unlikely to secure a third La Liga title under Simeone this season but they can be relied upon to be tactically rigid and physical in the image of their manager. Another man not to be discounted is Antoine Griezmann, the leading scorer in the club’s history.
It has been a very long time since any team but the aforementioned three won La Liga, a run that stretches all the way back to 2004 when Rafael Benitez was in charge of Valencia. The bookmakers have Athletic Bilbao, Villarreal and Real Betis the next most likely to produce a shock but the odds are fairly long (ranging from 50/1 to 100/1) since none would be expected to have the staying power even if Bilbao have managed to hang on to the irrepressible Nico Williams.
It should be a thrilling season in store. Flick will be hoping last season was just the start for his Barcelona side as they look to emulate the Guardiola era and dominate La Liga as well as the Champions League. For Alonso, first season or not, he simply has to win the title and continue the pattern of Spain’s two greatest clubs bouncing back and forth as La Liga champions. For the other clubs, one senses third is probably as good as it is going to get given it’s been half a decade since anyone else has managed to even break into the top two.
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(Photo of Kylian Mbappe: Buda Mendes / Getty Images)
