Netflix (NFLX) is set to report its fiscal third quarter earnings on Thursday after market close — but the streamer will once again have a high bar to overcome as the stock trades near all-time highs and analysts look ahead to another price hike announcement as a potential catalyst.
For full-year 2024, analysts polled by Bloomberg expect earnings to hit around $19 per share, with 2025 earnings per share pegged at just under $23.
Here’s what Wall Street expects for the third quarter, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates:
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Revenue: $9.78 billion (Netflix’s guidance: $9.73 billion) versus 8.54 billion in Q3 2023
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Earnings per share: $5.16 (Netflix’s guidance: $5.10) versus $3.73 in Q3 2023
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Net subscriber additions: 4.5 million versus 8.8 million in Q3 2023
Investors have praised the company’s foray into sports and live events. Meanwhile, its ad tier continues to gain traction. Shares have soared as a result, with the stock up about 45% since the start of the year.
Last week, the stock secured another record close, finishing the day at around $730 a share. Shares have retreated slightly to trade closer to $705.
But the recent run-up has led to some apprehension on Wall Street.
The company recently revealed subscribers watched over 94 billion hours on the platform from January to June as part of its latest biannual viewership report, although year-over-year engagement levels came in roughly flat — a potential headwind when it comes to pricing power, which has become especially important for streaming companies as consumers become more picky.
On average, US consumers subscribe to four streaming services and spend about $61 per month, according to the latest Digital Media Trends report from Deloitte. Retaining loyal subscribers over time is a challenge due to consumers churning out of, or canceling, their subscription plans.
Netflix last raised the price of its Standard plan in January 2022, upping the monthly cost to $15.49 from $13.99. It also raised the price of its Premium tier by $2 to $19.99 a month at the same time; the company again raised the cost of that plan last October to $22.99.
The company has yet to raise the price of its ad-supported offering, introduced less than two years ago, which remains one of the cheapest ad plans among all of the major streaming players at $6.99 a month.
“Given Netflix’s low cost per viewed hour, we see scope for the firm to raise US prices by 12% in 2025,” Citi analyst Jason Bazinet said.
Outside of a potential price hike, updates to the company’s fledgling advertising business will also be top of mind for investors. Last quarter, Netflix revealed it secured “a 150% plus increase in upfront ad sales commitments over 2023.”
The platform is also leaning into live sports and doubling down on its biggest shows.
Upcoming movies and series like “Happy Gilmore 2” and “Squid Game 2,” along with the recent acquisition of live sports content like the NFL Christmas Day games and WWE Raw, which will kick off in January 2024, helped fuel the success, according to the company.
Netflix has previously said its goal is to make ads “a more substantial revenue stream that contributes to sustained, healthy revenue growth in 2025 and beyond.” It will phase out its lowest-priced ad-free streaming plan as a result, making the $15.49 Standard plan its cheapest offering for an ad-free experience.
“We see the ad-tier introduction providing Netflix with another lever to maximize revenues — its north star,” Morgan Stanley analyst Ben Swinburne wrote in his earnings preview.
He added Hollywood’s “new normal,” in which competition for content is less intense and more studios opt for licensing deals, naturally “favors Netflix.” He reiterated his Overweight rating and upped his price target on shares to $820 from the prior $780.
“In the aftermath of this volatile period of media disruption, Netflix has emerged in a leadership position that few foresaw almost ten years ago,” he said.
Alexandra Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at alexandra.canal@yahoofinance.com.
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