7.58am: BP guides to mixed quarter
BP PLC (LSE:BP.) has put out a short trading update before its full quarterly results next month, saying it expects stronger upstream and refining performance in the third quarter of 2025, though oil trading results are likely to be weak.
Brent crude oil average prices were higher in the period, at $69.13 per barrel compared with $67.88 in the second quarter.
Production is expected to rise from the second quarter, led by higher gas output at its bpx energy business and improved performance in its gas and low-carbon energy division.
The quarterly results are scheduled for 4 November.
7.46am: Close Bros ups redress provisions
Some company news now. Close Brothers Group PLC (LSE:CBG) has added £135 million to its previous £165 million provisions for motor finance compensation.
This follows Lloyd’s update yesterday and the launch of the FCA consultation last Monday, with details on which commission models would be covered, how unfairness would be assessed and how compensation would be calculated.
The lender said the new guidance places potential costs at the upper end of its earlier forecasts and, like Lloyds, said it “does not believe the redress methodology proposed by the FCA appropriately reflects actual customer loss or achieves a proportionate outcome”.
7.33am: Pound falls
The pound has fallen against the dollar and the euro, after the jobs data, down 0.4% for each currency pair, reflecting a slight increase in interest rate cut hopes.
But market analyst Michael Brown at Pepperstone reckons “there are limited implications from this morning’s data for the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee”.
This is partly as incoming inflation data should be a more important deciding factor, but also as quality and accuracy concerns continue to plague the ONS employment statistics.
As well as the changes in pay growth, he notes that the more timely PAYE metric of payrolled employees from September pointed to a decline of 10k, the eighth monthly decline in a row, “indicating that while the pace of job shedding has slowed markedly from earlier in the year, hiring has yet to materially pick up”.
7.25am: Unemployment up, pay growth down
UK unemployment has surprisingly risen to 4.8%, according to freshly published data by the Office for National Statistics, up from 4.7%.
Average wage growth including bonuses was up 5.0% in the three months to August, from 4.7%, where it was expected to remain.
Excluding bonuses, pay growth fell to 4.7% from 4.8%, with the market expecting it also to have remained at 4.8%. These figures were boosted by the annual NHS staff pay award.
Excluding public sector wages, pay growth excluding bonuses fell to 4.4% from 4.7%, with the economists expecting 4.5%.
“After a long period of weak hiring activity, there are signs that the falls we have seen in both payroll numbers and vacancies are now levelling off,” says ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown.
“We see different patterns across the age ranges with record numbers of over-65s in work, while the increase in unemployment was driven mostly by younger people.
“Wage growth slowed in the private sector to its lowest rate in nearly four years, but public sector pay growth increased, reflecting some public sector pay rises being awarded earlier than they were last year.”
Viraj Patel at Vanda Research says the 5% pay growth is “mechanical” due to the difference in timing for public sector pay rises, whereas the fall in private sector pay is the “real sign of labour market loosening”, the lowest since 2021.
He says this means the Bank of England is “on track” to cut.
7.15am: FTSE 100 set to slide
A sharp fall is expected for the FTSE 100 and other European stock markets on Tuesday as the previous day’s confidence appears to be a mirage.
London’s blue-chip index has been called 37 points lower, after closing up 15.4 points at 9,442.87.
Germany’s DAX has been called over 100 points lower, while Wall Street futures are in the red too.
Asian markets are seeing heavy selling this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei tumbling 2.8% and the Hang Seng down 1.2% in Hong Kong.
That followed strong gains for US stocks overnight, led by the tech-powered Nasdaq, which rebounded 2.2% after Friday’s sell-off, while the S&P 500 climbed 1.6% and the Dow Jones added 1.3%.
