Ford stock shakes off $1.5 billion hit from Novelis fire on news plant will reopen this year

Big Three automaker Ford (F) reported third-quarter results after the bell that topped expectations, but the company projected financial hits due to the aluminum plant fire that impacted Ford’s franchise F-150 pickups and SUVs. However news that the plant will re-open early, and the strength of Ford’s underlying business before the plant closure, has the stock jumping.

Ford said the Novelis aluminum plant fire in New York will result in a 2025 adjusted EBIT headwind of $1.5 billion to $2.0 billion, which will also affect full-year cash flow, but the company is expected to mitigate at least $1 billion of adjusted EBIT in 2026. The full hit from the Novelis plant fire will be taken in Ford’s fourth quarter.

Ford projects the Novelis “headwind” between 2025 and 2026 to be $1 billion or less.

As a result, Ford adjusted its full-year guidance lower, now seeing adjusted EBIT of $6 billion to $6.5 billion (prior $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion), and adjusted free cash flow of $2 billion to $3 billion (prior $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion). Ford said the production disruption “results in an oversized short-term impact on our working capital, which will reverse next year — and capital expenditures of about $9 billion,” which remains the same.

Ford stock rose nearly 9% in early trading on Friday on a Wall Street Journal report claiming Novelis would restart its plant later this year, as opposed to 2026.

Ford CFO Sherry House said in a call with reporters that Ford would have boosted full-year guidance if not for the Novelis fire, tracking at “$8 billion-plus” in adjusted EBIT for the year. Ford COO Kumar Galhotra added that F-150 production would experience “disruptions” over the coming weeks.

Concurrently, Ford announced plans to increase F-150 and F-Series Super Duty production by more than 50,000 trucks in 2026 to meet demand and recover production losses due to the Novelis fire. However, F-150 Lightning EV pickup production will remain paused to prioritize gas and hybrid truck production.

Bank of America analyst Federico Merendi saw Ford’s update as a positive one, and raised the bank’s price target to $14.50 (prior $13.50), and reiterated its Buy rating.

“As positives, Ford expects to recover roughly half of the EBIT lost in 4Q25 ($750m-$1,000m) in 2026, benefit from more favorable regulatory environment… and potentially lower warranty costs. Adding these tailwinds to the strong underlying performance, we see a path for 2026E adjusted EBIT in the range of $8.5bn-$10.5bn,” Merendi wrote in a note Friday morning.