In just over a month and a half, the US will have a new president elect. Either Donald Trump will take back the Oval Office, or Vice President Kamala Harris will get the promotion of a lifetime.
This week’s feisty debate between the Republican and Democratic nominees has captured the nation’s attention, and market strategists are no exception.
While many investment firms stay away from politics, others aren’t shy about talking about the election’s possible implications. Throughout 2024, Business Insider has rounded up ideas about the intersection of the election and markets from firms like Bernstein, Goldman Sachs, and Barclays, plus investing legends like Steve Eisman.
For all the differences between Trump and Harris, some have noted that both of their parties have a populist streak, and neither seems overly concerned with the burgeoning national debt.
“Economic populism is intrinsic to both candidates’ policy platforms but directed at different segments of society,” wrote Solita Marcelli, the chief investment officer, Americas, at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a September 12 note. “Trump prefers to focus on lower income taxes and trade protectionism. Harris emphasizes higher taxes targeted at the affluent and incentives for entrepreneurs. Neither is spending much time discussing recurring federal budget deficits.”
Despite those apparent similarities, Republicans and Democrats generally have starkly different policy proposals that could have major implications for certain sectors and industries.
How to invest based on this fall’s elections
To that point, Oppenheimer strategists published a note that listed 38 stocks that would thrive if one party wins the White House and Congress. In the spirit of fairness, they had 19 firms for each outcome. The team also shared seven stocks that can hold up no matter what happens.
Their analysis is based on whether Republican or Democratic policies are more conducive to a stock’s success. The strategists noted that there aren’t necessarily the firm’s top ideas, nor are they merely a list of outperform-rated companies.
“This playbook is intended to help investors navigate trading dynamics around the elections,” Oppenheimer strategists wrote in the note. “Over the longer term, we expect stocks’ behavior will more likely be a function of broader market/industry-level trends and individual company performance.”
Below are those 38 ideas, sorted in alphabetical order by their sector and industry. In each of the 17 groups is its top election issue, according to Oppenheimer, plus the company or companies that would do best under Republican or Democratic control. Note that Oppenheimer didn’t give picks for a divided government scenario.
