According to the Xinhua News Agency, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee believes that the economic fundamentals and favourable conditions have not changed. High-quality development is being solidly advanced, and the overall social situation has remained stable. At the same time, “some new situations and problems have emerged in the current economic operation”, which makes it necessary to evaluate the current economic situation comprehensively, objectively and calmly. It is necessary to face the difficulties squarely and “concretely bolster the sense of responsibility and urgency to undertake economic work adequately”.
To put it simply, the central government believes that the overall economic development is still “stable and making progress”, but there are also some short-term problems that need to be tackled urgently. Those in the meeting believed that it is necessary to “further improve the pertinence and effectiveness of policy measures”, which shows that the previous countermeasures are still inadequate.
According to the previous statements of the central ministries, a new model of real estate development can be summarised into four aspects. The first is to adhere to the principle and stance that “housing is for living, not speculation”.
The mainland authorities have emphasised the need to reform and improve the system for real estate development, transaction and usage. When it comes to insolvent projects not on the whitelist, bankruptcy reorganisation or liquidation will be sped up for developers. The legitimate rights and interests of homebuyers will be given priority in accordance with the Supreme People’s Court’s regulations on the priority of debt repayment. In other words, it is extremely unlikely that the central government will bail out these developers.
In addition to issues concerning the mainland’s property industry, the meeting also focused on supporting private enterprises, promoting consumption, protecting people’s livelihood, and boosting the capital market. Among the proposed measures, the launch of the “Private Economy Promotion Law” and the focus on the employment support for key groups such as fresh university graduates and zero-employment households, are all responses with specific targets. In fact, earlier this week the State Council issued a document proposing a strategy that prioritises employment and requires that job security for young people be well protected.
To promote economic recovery, regional governments across the country have, based on their own local circumstances, issued different types of consumption vouchers in recent months. But the scales of these schemes have been limited. The latest consumption voucher scheme announced in Shanghai, for example, amounts to merely around RMB 500 million. In this meeting, it was also pointed out that it is necessary to “link promoting consumption with benefiting people’s livelihood” and increase the income of low- and middle-income cohorts.
Many market observers believe that more radical measures are needed to reverse the dilemma facing the mainland’s property industry and weak domestic demand. But it is clear that the mainland authorities believe that a balance must be struck between short-, medium- and long-term economic development goals. While flooding the market with money can achieve considerable short-term effects, it will only encourage the old model and perpetuate the old problems, which is not conducive to economic structural transformation. The mainland authorities are determined to maintain a 5% economic growth and have launched economic stimulus measures one after another. The effectiveness of these measures will be seen in the coming months.
明報社評2024.09.27：促進房地產止跌回穩 中央政策力度勢加強
中共中央政治局開會，提出要努力提振資本市場、促進房地產市場止跌回穩，刺激滬深港三地股市顯著上揚。
根據新華社通稿，中共中央政治局會議認為，經濟基本面及有利條件並未改變，高質量發展紮實推進，社會大局也維持穩定，與此同時，「當前經濟運行出現一些新的情况和問題」，要全面客觀冷靜看待當前經濟形勢，正視困難，「切實增強做好經濟工作的責任感和緊迫感」。
簡單而言，中央認為整體經濟發展仍屬「穩中有進」，惟短期內也有一些問題需要迫切處理。會議認為要「進一步提高政策措施的針對性、有效性」，反映之前的應對措施，依然有所不足。
根據內地部委之前的說法，構建房地產發展新模式，可概括為4個方面，第一就是堅持「房住不炒」的理念和定位。
內地當局強調要改革完善房地產開發、交易和使用制度，對於不在白名單上的資不抵債項目，將加快推進項目開發企業破產重組或清算，並按最高人民法院關於債務清償順位規定，優先保障購房人合法權益。換言之，中央出手「包底拯救」的可能仍是微乎其微。
除了內房問題，會議也就撐民企、促消費、保民生，以及提振資本市場等方面着墨，當中關於推出《民營經濟促進法》、重點做好應屆大學畢業生及零就業家庭等重點人口就業工作，都有針對性。事實上，國務院本周便發布文件，提出就業優先戰略，要求為青年做好就業保障。
全國各地政府為促進復蘇，近月紛紛根據本地情况，啟動不同類型消費券發放工作，惟規模有限，例如上海最新公布的消費券計劃，金額大約只有5億元人民幣。今次會議亦指出，要把「促消費和惠民生結合起來」，促進中低收入族群增收。
不少市場人士認為，內地需要採取更激進措施，才能扭轉內房困局及內需疲弱，然而內地當局顯然認為，必須兼顧短、中、長期經濟發展目標，大水漫灌式救市，短期提振作用雖顯著，但只會助長舊模式、延續老問題，不利實現經濟結構轉型。內地當局決心「保五」，刺激經濟措施接踵出台，成效如何，未來數月當有分曉。
■休刊小啓：英文社評 將於10月1日（星期二）休刊一天。
編輯部
■Glossary 生字 /
squarely : directly or exactly; without confusion
bolster : to improve sth or make it stronger
pertinence : the quality of being appropriate to a particular situation
