Macquarie economists said Friday that they no longer see the Federal Reserve making any changes to its benchmark policy rate in 2025.
Blame the change on the January jobs report, released Friday morning. The team, led by analyst David Doyle, said that recent payroll numbers that were revised higher, coupled with January’s lower unemployment rate and stronger wage growth, “leads us to change our baseline view” on the strategy of the Fed’s policymaking body.
Macquarie’s position echoes that of Bank of America, which delcared in January that “we think the cutting cycle is over.”
Not all banks are in agreement: Morgan Stanley on Thursday reiterated its forecast of one 25 basis points rate cut in June. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, is expecting two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in June and December.
